By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
StarDoor on 28 April 2018
Edit Thread
JRPGfan said:
drkohler said:

I don't think you (and many posters here) understand what this forecast in a fy report means.

This is not a "let's put in a number here and see what happens" thing.

The forecast of 16m units means that the plan is to manufacture 16m units in the current fy. This means time tables, components, plant facilities, distribution channels and whatnot else have been set in stone/paid/allocated/reserved/whatnot for 16m units.

This does not exclude the possibility that Sony might increase production numbers sometimes down the line, but such a change always goes along with much higher production costs per additional unit.

So you are left with three possibilities:

1. Sony produces 16m units as announced

2. Sony produces more than 16m units in the end, but at increased costs

3. Sony planned for more than 16m units at given costs, and simply gives a 16m fy number for "feelgood reasons" when the final tally is in.

Conspiracy theorists will obviously like number 3.

I must be a conspiracy nut then...
cuz it feels like they have done low forecasts every year, and every year they beat them and go "we re so surprised by the support" ect.

That's not exactly true.

In FY3/2014, Sony projected selling 15 million PS3+PS4 units, and they ended up selling 14.6 million.
In FY3/2015, Sony projected selling 17 million PS3+PS4 units, and they ended up selling 17.9 million.
In FY3/2016, Sony projected selling 16 million PS4 units, and they ended up selling 17.7 million.
In FY3/2017, Sony projected selling 20 million PS4 units, and they ended up selling 20 million.
In FY3/2018, Sony projected selling 18 million PS4 units, and they ended up selling 19 million.

If anything, I'd say that their projections have been very accurate. The biggest discrepancy throughout the PS4's lifetime was only +1.7 million, and the average is +0.64 million. In the same period, Nintendo's biggest discrepancies were -5.76 million for 3DS, -6.28 million for Wii U, and +5.05 million for Switch.