RolStoppable said:
It is clear that the low shipments were due to last quarter, because we have two facts that support such a conclusion: 1. Sony provided sell-through numbers for the end of 2017. Those put the gap between sell-through and shipments at 2.9m which is higher than normal. 2. Sony's forecast for the recently started fiscal year is 16m, a number that doesn't suggest low stock levels on a global scale at the end of the recently ended fiscal year. Japan isn't an indicator for global stock levels because neither America or Europe have come even remotely close to having shortages. Additionally, the stock that has been missing in Japan is only around 100k units (missed out sell-through + units to put on shelves for retailers) which has a negligible impact on worldwide shipments through a whole quarter. |
1.It's not so clear cut. Last year Sony also provided sell through numbers. The shipment-sales gap was 3.7m MUCH higher than the numbers this year. And then what did they ship in Q1? 2.9m. Also higher then last quarter.
So then we have the 2.9m+ 2.5m for this year which is unreasonably small vs the 3.7m + 2.9m. A 1.2m gap, and let me tell you PS4 did not outsell itself last year vs this year by 1.2m, I would even argue the numbers were very close so its even possible that Sony undershipped by 1.2m. But I would not say that is true as that would be ludicrous.
All I am saying it isn't so clear.
2. 16m is conservative and is likely without price cuts, but it isn't that much lower than 19m.
As for paragraph 3, it is entirely possible stock was lower in many other countries just not out of stock.
