Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

[The_Liquid_Laser]

trent44 said:
FY 2017 results:

3DS:

6.40 million consoles (down 12% YoY)
35.64 million games (down 35.3% YoY)

Switch:

15.05 million consoles (17.79m total)
63.51 million games (68.97m total)

FY 2018 Forecast:

3DS:

4.00 million consoles
16.00 million games

Switch:

20.00 million consoles
100.00 million games

Basically, Nintendo plans for 3DS hardware and software to crash this year (shipping 37.5% less 3DSs with 55.11% less games this next 12 months)

While Nintendo Switch will blossom, (shipping 33.33% more Nintendo Switches with 57.45% more games)

I think Nintendo can hit all 4 forcasts this year, but I think they are still being a bit conservative on Nintendo Switch hardware forcasts and they will probably revise that forcast up during the September 31st results or the December 31st results, by as much as an extra 4 million Nintendo Switches.

I think they have another giant seller, such as Animal Crossing, ready for November if Pokemon gets pushed back to February, If Pokemon launches in November, Animal Crossing will launch in February instead.

So depending on how smooth the development process goes, it could end up either way, and I think Nintendo doesn't quite have the final verdict on that yet.

Either way, they will have a bigger year than last year which is positive momentum for third party developers to hop on the success train.

Many third parties will make bank, a few will miss the opportunity for various reasons.

All around, great news today!

:)

I believe they projected 10m for this past year, so I'd say they blew past that projection pretty easily.  For this next year I think they are going to exceed their 3DS projections.  I don't think they are going to make their Switch hardware projection though.  Nintendo is much more bullish on Labo than I am, and I think NIntendo is going to flub their online service in its first year.  In fact, the Switch hack may already be enough to screw up the online service for a while.

The people at NIntendo are a bunch of arrogant geniuses.  Sometimes their genius shows more and sometimes their arrogance shows more.  When they are humbled, their genius shows and they make stuff like the Wii and the Switch and Zelda: Breath of the Wild.  But when they are arrogant that make stuff like the Wii U and Nintendoland.    Right now I look at Labo and I see Nintendo in arrogance mode.  I think they are overestimating Labo and their online service.  I also think they are going to fall short of that 20m projection by several million.  A little dose of humility would do them good.