as if UK could win regardless of the quality of their song
They definitely could. Portugal isn't part of a voting bloc either, but despite that they managed to get the highest score of all time last year.
You don't think France is going to be in the top 10?! And what about Hungary? Both imo will finnish top 5.
This year is very hard to predict. There are a lot of songs that could get a lot of points, but nothing stands out. The French song will likely get in the top 15, but I'm not sure if they could make it to the top 10. The song isn't as memorable as some of the others, so they may not get that many points from the televote. But of course, a lot will depend on their delivery on stage.
Hungary is my personal favorite, but I'm not sure if it will do well. The jury seems to prefer very safe pop songs (like Sweden and Australia send every year), so they probably won't get a lot of jury points. Hopefully the televote will get them to the final, but I strongly doubt they'll end up in the top five.