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Two and a quarter mil I'll wager. There's a bunch of factors in it's favor this time around:
* No Wii Sports to overshadow it with a tennis title literally everyone owns.
* Motion controls are back
* Story mode is back
* Contents looks like game will have more than any of the other recent titles
* Gameplay seems to be refined, offering a balanced system, while offering the vanilla mode as well
* Advertising seems to be significantly improved over other recent entries. (Anecdotally, this is the first one I've heard about before release, and I've been around since it started.)
* Lack of titles to compete for the casual crowd.
* On a system that's designed for multiplayer (As opposed to GBC,GBA,3DS)