Predicting Switch sales

[killeryoshis]

JRPGfan said:

Kristof81 said:

TBH I don't see any correlation, apart from the obvious like, less than $100 and no more than $300 launch price. If you take NES out of the equation, I'd say ... the curse of $199 price tag prevents systems to reach 50M barrier ??? Nah, there's nothing there. Software is the key.

3DS probably has the strongest lineup in terms of software of any Nintendo console ever so far...
and its only at 71M dispite alot of owners collecting them and haveing (3-4 models of them).

Software (quality & quantity) isnt the only thing that counts.
Wii Had a few really great games (mario galaxy I+II, Xenoblade, ect) but its overall library was kinda weak.... yet it went on to sell more than 100m.

Its hard to say what makes a succesfull console, esp with nintendo.
Maybe the Motion Controll & games for it + handheld aspect + Labo are enough to repeat the Wii's success though.

3DS has one of the strongest libraries? Are you serious? If you were a JRPG gamer I can see why you would think that but the 3DS's library was very mono. Sure there are some good games on there but a huge chunk of them are RPGs. Most specifically JRPGs. If you compare the 3DS to the DS or Wii you see that variety is a bit more lacking.  On the DS it was common to see platformers, Puzzles, Mystery, Education, Shooter, RPGs and shoot'em ups on the same system. The Wii has fitness, platformers, Hack'n'Slash, shooters, Sports, puzzle and Party games. The 3DS has a good library but if you aren't into JRPGs than you really are going to have a hard time justifying buying one. You wouldn't even consider it if you didn't like Platformers or JRPGs. 

Also, 3DS cannot compete with the NES or SNES either. At best the 3DS is at 5th place. There is a reason why the 3DS sold the way it did. That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity.