Mario and Rabbids is looking to sell more than 2 million (and the DLC isn't even out yet) so I can't see why anything else Mario branded can't. After all, it was a new IP and the genre was more niche (although Tennis, in particular, could be considered a niche sports subcategory for games, not sure)...
I think you guys are forgetting the Japanese market. The first Mario Tennis sold 1 million in Japan, so it was appealing to them more than anyone else. So what we're looking at here is, can this game sell 1 million in Japan? It's a tough call, as the 64 wasn't that popular in Japan, yet this game did somewhat better in the region than any other game in the franchise despite the latter entries on the Wii and 3DS having a far bigger install base in Japan.
So we could say, "yeah, it definitely is a franchise declining in sales" as I hear that Power Tennis wasn't bad, not one bit. I often do hear that Mario Tennis Open was mediocre, though.
Whatever the case is, I believe that this game should at least sell 500k or more in Japan, and the other regions should hit that amount too. I'll safely go with 1.5M...but I know it can top 2M easily. Depends on how good the game is at launch honestly, but it should be better than Ultra Smash.
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