Btw, 40k would be a great baseline for 2019 and it's the opposite of what you said... it helps the case of my prediction. That would be more than enough to meet the 2.8m mentioned, as it would put it at 1.8m up until october, then it would only need a million during the holidays. I think this won't be much of a problem for Zelda.
Anyway, I guess we'll have an awesome idea later this month when figures are released.
Actually, it makes your case weaker since 2019 would total upto 2M units instead of it doing 2.8M and we have yet to see how Zelda will perform in the slower quarters (Q2/Q3) too this year ...