zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:
It amazes me that the predictions for the PS4 are still so low for some. You would think after ~5 years of doubting its sales would sink in. I mean, right now, it's looking like the PS4 will at least be on par with last year. We're going to get a permanent cut to at least $249 this year, and we will most likely have a price of $199 for longer than a week for the holidays. This would put LTD at 95M-96M by the end of this year.
Even if the PS5 launches in 2019, Sony is still going to cut the PS4 to a permanent $199, which should help negate any steep drop. But, let's say the PS4 is down 3M in 2019, this would still put LTD at 112M-113M by the end of 2019. Do people really think that a $199, which will probably drop to $149-$169 eventually, PS4 is going to sell less than 17M-18M for the next 2-3 years after the PS5 launches?
Looking at historical data, the answer seems to be no. The PS2 sold ~42.6M from 2007, the year after the PS3 launched, to the time it was discontinued. Now, I don't expect those kind of sales, since I think the weak launch of the PS3 didn't really hurt the PS2. However, I think it will see a situation similar to the PS1, which sold 22.88M from 2001, the year after the PS2 launched, to the time it was discontinued. My guess is that the PS4 should do ~20M-22M after the PS5 launches, which would put LTD at 132M-135M. Of course, if the PS5 comes in 2020, or the PS4 performs even better than the PS1 due to its popularity, I could see it doing 140M+. |
Just one thing i want to ask, werent alot of the PS1/PS2 legs from releasing in developing markets much later in their lives, these markets have grown quite a bit in that time along with PS4 releasing much earlier so couldnt that affect the legs of PS4 to a degree?
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Ps2? Yes. PS1? I don't believe so. Which is probably what helped push the PS2's legs to be almost 2x that of the PS1. And why I think PS4 will perform close to what the PS1 did after the PS2 launched. A PS4 below $200 is going to do well in most countries.
