It amazes me that the predictions for the PS4 are still so low for some. You would think after ~5 years of doubting its sales would sink in. I mean, right now, it's looking like the PS4 will at least be on par with last year. We're going to get a permanent cut to at least $249 this year, and we will most likely have a price of $199 for longer than a week for the holidays. This would put LTD at 95M-96M by the end of this year.
Even if the PS5 launches in 2019, Sony is still going to cut the PS4 to a permanent $199, which should help negate any steep drop. But, let's say the PS4 is down 3M in 2019, this would still put LTD at 112M-113M by the end of 2019. Do people really think that a $199, which will probably drop to $149-$169 eventually, PS4 is going to sell less than 17M-18M for the next 2-3 years after the PS5 launches?
Looking at historical data, the answer seems to be no. The PS2 sold ~42.6M from 2007, the year after the PS3 launched, to the time it was discontinued. Now, I don't expect those kind of sales, since I think the weak launch of the PS3 didn't really hurt the PS2. However, I think it will see a situation similar to the PS1, which sold 22.88M from 2001, the year after the PS2 launched, to the time it was discontinued. My guess is that the PS4 should do ~20M-22M after the PS5 launches, which would put LTD at 132M-135M. Of course, if the PS5 comes in 2020, or the PS4 performs even better than the PS1 due to its popularity, I could see it doing 140M+.
