Will the Switch outsell the Wii?

[Asriel]

I think it has a good chance, but I expect we'll see Switch's sales-pace fall behind Wii in the next two years.

A lot has changed since the Wii era, not least Nintendo themselves. Switch is the first system to benefit from Nintendo's internal reorganisation, the booming indie scene, and soon will be the only system Nintendo are focusing on. Scalable engines and a healthy appetite for ports will also benefit Switch - alongside a more regular supply of Nintendo games, there's a far broader array of quality software than any Nintendo system has enjoyed for a long time. Combined with the basic appeal and flexibility of the premise - not to mention the potential for hardware based expansions and experiments like Labo given Switch's modular nature - and Switch ultimately has more potential than any Nintendo hardware since DS.

I can see it doing more than 100 million over 6 years. Beyond that I'm not sure - it depends on whether Nintendo decide to support the system beyond the typical lifespan (as they are saying they will) and what kind of revisions we see and when. We might see a more smartphone like approach to revisions. By that I don't mean annual revisions, but say revisions every 3 years or so to boost the system's power, Nintendo could even - after two hardware revisions - phase out the 2017 model by making software from 2023 onwards compatible with the 2020/23 models (backwards compatible with all previous software, of course). The industry is changing rapidly and console generations are going to change, too.