Japan sales (Week 12): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - March 19-25, 2018

[zorg1000]

Megiddo said:

Here is the week 12 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

	TWS	GD	YTD	AWN (Change)
PS4	23,856	-8,569	694,428	32,639 (+214)
Switch	50,412	-32,765	640,129	83,996 (+819)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Pretty much the same as last week all across the board. Both console's AWN is slowly creeping up.

The big difference to take note of in your comparison is the effect Holidays have on Sony/Nintendo hardware which your AWN doesnt factor in.

 

When it comes to Nintendo hardware, its not uncommon for Q4 sales to make up 50% of the yearly total.

On the other hand, Q4 sales for PS4 in the last 4 years have made up ~33% of yearly totals.

 

What this means is that if Switch averages 50k/week & PS4 25k/week like they have been doing than they will be at ~2m & ~1.4m by the end of September. Apply their holiday boosts of Q4 and you have ~4m & ~2m for yearly totals.