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curl-6 said:

Nintendo would have to fuck up pretty badly for it not to, honestly.

Mainline Pokemon, hardware revisions, multiple purchases per household, and a longer lifespan should push it passed the Wii.

Exactly.

Plenty of people who have a Switch now will buy some new Switch revision a few years down the line. That's something that handhelds get that consoles don't (for the most part).

The Wii went totally nuts for like 3 years then really fell off because its massive new market of non-gamers started to not be interested anymore. No reason to think the Switch will suddenly go from crazy popular to mediocre sales all of a sudden like that.

Pokemon. Exactly. For the first time in history pokemon will be on a home console and it will be the only place to play new pokemon games.

All that plus the Switch is going to totally take over the Japanese market - Switch will probably sell about 15 million more in Japan than the Wii did. And of course as the 3DS fades away Nintendo will be entirely focused on software for a single system for the first time since before Gameboy came out! The only thing left for Switch to get for it to smash Wii's sales is to get good AAA third party support. It's got great indie support so far and gotten some good older third party games, but we're still waiting on new game AAA support.

 

Anyways, I think it has a good shot of beating the Wii as long as they get good third party support and keep making great games. I think 110 million is doable if Nintendo makes smart decisions.