## Sales Discussion - Prediction League Thread - first round with the PS5 and XS prepare for MAYHEM! HA HA - View Post

So you want to be a contender? Do you think you can out-estimate the analysts? Show off your predicting prowess in the VG Chartz Prediction League.

How to Play

Each week we will create prediction rounds for Japan, America and Others. In each round you must submit your predictions using our entry form for the mix of software and hardware provided for that round. VG Chartz will provide a list of software and hardware for players to predict sales of (generally expected to be the top performers for that week). To qualify for a given contest, your entry must be received before the closing date. Occasionally, VG Chartz will post some one-off prediction rounds covering sales over a quarter or a year. These rounds can be entered in exactly the same way as the weekly rounds.

Each prediction you make per round has a minimum bet that you must place of vg\$5. For predictions you feel more confident about you can bet more against, for predictions you are less confident about you should bet the mimimum amount. Your total bet amount over the predictions in a round cannot exceed your current wealth - i.e it cannot make you bankrupt to place the bet.

Think wisely about your predictions - use the charting and comparison tools provided by the website to look over historical data and place your money wisely on the predictions you think will pay out the most!

Winnings are determined by your prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for a each prediction is calculated as the difference between your prediction and actual figure / actual figure. The prediction accuracy for each prediction is divided by the average accuracy across all users for that prediction and then this ratio is multiplied by your bet on that prediction. This is totalled up over the 15 predictions. An example is the best way to illustrate. Example:

You predict a game will sell 175,000 copies for the week and the game actually sells 200,000. So, we take the difference between your prediction and the actual sales and divide it by the actual sales 25,000 / 200,000. The result, 0.125, represents the percentage your prediction was off from the actual (12.5% off). Subtracting this number from 1 (one represents being wholly accurate) tells us how close or accurate your prediction is to the actual: 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 or 87.5% accurate. Note that if your prediction is off by more than the actual amount (i.e., off by more than 100%), your accuracy will be 0% representing the fact that you were simply not accurate in your prediction (e.g., you predict 100,000 and the actual is 30,000). Your accuracy is then divided by the average accuracy for that prediction, in this case say 50% (100,000 as the average prediction) to give (87.5/50) then multiplied by your original bet. So if you bet vg\$10 on this prediction, you would win 10 x (87.5/50) = vg\$17.50 (a net profit of vg\$7.50 against the original bet). This is repeated across all your bets and totalled up.

VG Chartz will post the results of each round, one week after the actual data for that period has been posted on the site (to give time for any adjustments to the actual data). Once your bets have been cashed in, changes will not be made if adjustments are made to the actual data on the site later on. VG Chartz will be the sole determinant of player accuracy and scores. We reserve the right to disqualify anyone from the leauge for any reason.

Quicklink towards main prediction page :

http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/

where do i submit my predictions, and where is the information stating what I'm predicting on?

On the frontpage click on the prediction league header., then you will arrive on http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions
Next step is choose a round to enter, which currently displays only one option right now weekly wordwide chart 14th april 2018 http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/enter.php?game=259
Which filled in looks like this

When does a round close and how can i see that?

When you enter a round on the page you fill in your predictions a closing day will be mentioned
As a great reminder open rounds are green, rounds that will close in 2 days will turn orange and rounds closed for predictions will turn red.
Once the payout has been done rounds will turn black.

Rule of thumb rounds close Thursday 14.00 ( GMT +2, Amsterdam ), 14.00 in CEST (UTC+2) which means it closes 12.00 in GMT

Tip if you dont know what to predict
Just take a look at the charts and see if you can make out a trend or an average from previous weeks, or possibly last year or games from a similair genre.

How do I turn off the notifications to this?

Where are the software rounds?

i'm waiting with software untill some things are done that will speed up the process.
Currently if i do a hardware only round lets take round one for the week of 14 april it closed the 11th and normal numbers should be know next week before the 27th unless there is a delay like there is this week.

that means the waiting period is 27th april- 11th april = +- 16 days

now lets take a round with software the USA weekly chart with software for 3 march ( if there was a round that round would have closed on the first of march ) was released on 17th of april

that means the waiting period is 17th april - 1st march = +- 49 days

that means before a rounds payout with software is done it takes a month extra

Once this is familiar for everyone, i could do a HW only round and a SW+HW round in the same week

Suggestions :

-bonus from the next round for the person that gets closer on a single prediction

# Standings after Round 1:

Total Winnings 5714 vg\$ (5668 vg\$ considering losses)
Total Bets: 22210 vg\$
Total Participants: 56
Bets over 1k: 6

Average Bet : 397 vg\$
Average Winnings Per User: 101 vg\$
Average Winnings Ratio: 19,36%
Average Accuracy: 75,04%

Ranking overall (sum of placements in the other 3 rankings)

 rank username sum points 1 Aka-Gami 16 1 Machina 16 3 derpysquirtle64 19 4 Marth 21 5 ironmanDX 23 6 cycycychris 26 7 PDF 27 8 kirby007 31 9 melbye 35 10 Carl 36 11 Ka-pi96 37 12 fory77 43 12 TalonMan 43 14 Welfare 44 15 RedKingXIII 45 16 VGPolyglot 55 17 AngryLittleAlchemist 59 17 zygote 59 19 Stuart23 63 20 palou 65 21 AnmolRed 71 22 EmotionalMongoose 75 23 horenkind 77 24 PSintend0 78 24 setsunatenshi 78 26 Dark_Lord_2008 80 26 Mnementh 80 28 ryuzaki57 81 28 Slarvax 81 30 morenoIngrato 84 31 LinkDaHero 87 32 theDX 88 33 WoodenPints 92 34 hiccupthehuman 97 35 ninjapirate42 98 36 S.Peelman 100 36 Ucouldntbemorewrong 100 38 Bofferbrauer2 101 39 AntonTeiosanu 104 40 RodrigoCard 109 41 Mr.Playstation 110 42 Kerotan 113 43 dravenmanson 117 44 forest-spirit 122 45 jason1637 128 45 NeverEndingStory 128 47 JSG87 136 47 Luke888 136 49 Thaddaeus02 137 50 KingoftheBRUCE 138 51 Harkins1721 148 52 ABizzel1 157 53 Marach 158 54 Darwinianevolution 164 54 xytherion 164 56 fedfed 167

Winnings ranking

 rank username bet winnings accuracy winpercent 1 PDF 3430 vg\$ 1049 vg\$ 82,30% 30,58% 2 Marth 2500 vg\$ 708 vg\$ 85,48% 28,32% 3 kirby007 1550 vg\$ 587 vg\$ 80,41% 37,87% 4 Machina 1600 vg\$ 579 vg\$ 86,36% 36,19% 5 VGPolyglot 1800 vg\$ 489 vg\$ 76,51% 27,17% 6 Carl 580 vg\$ 282 vg\$ 78,30% 48,62% 7 Ka-pi96 725 vg\$ 249 vg\$ 81,71% 34,34% 8 Aka-Gami 500 vg\$ 182 vg\$ 92,91% 36,40% 9 cycycychris 390 vg\$ 160 vg\$ 82,65% 41,03% 10 fory77 500 vg\$ 128 vg\$ 83,10% 25,60% 11 Slarvax 750 vg\$ 127 vg\$ 76,92% 16,93% 12 derpysquirtle64 305 vg\$ 125 vg\$ 87,07% 40,98% 13 LinkDaHero 500 vg\$ 84 vg\$ 74,98% 16,80% 14 ironmanDX 195 vg\$ 81 vg\$ 85,25% 41,54% 15 WoodenPints 500 vg\$ 80 vg\$ 74,37% 16,00% 16 dravenmanson 1230 vg\$ 74 vg\$ 60,06% 6,02% 17 Ucouldntbemorewrong 550 vg\$ 69 vg\$ 72,50% 12,55% 18 Welfare 175 vg\$ 65 vg\$ 81,94% 37,14% 19 TalonMan 225 vg\$ 61 vg\$ 85,16% 27,11% 20 Dark_Lord_2008 230 vg\$ 58 vg\$ 74,61% 25,22% 21 AntonTeiosanu 420 vg\$ 51 vg\$ 74,13% 12,14% 22 melbye 125 vg\$ 38 vg\$ 87,17% 30,40% 23 RedKingXIII 110 vg\$ 33 vg\$ 83,40% 30,00% 24 Stuart23 145 vg\$ 32 vg\$ 83,33% 22,07% 25 ryuzaki57 150 vg\$ 31 vg\$ 79,15% 20,67% 26 morenoIngrato 130 vg\$ 29 vg\$ 77,98% 22,31% 27 setsunatenshi 105 vg\$ 27 vg\$ 77,66% 25,71% 28 NeverEndingStory 995 vg\$ 26 vg\$ 64,98% 2,61% 29 theDX 100 vg\$ 22 vg\$ 78,24% 22,00% 30 Mr.Playstation 140 vg\$ 21 vg\$ 73,97% 15,00% 31 jason1637 180 vg\$ 18 vg\$ 61,89% 10,00% 32 AnmolRed 55 vg\$ 14 vg\$ 82,04% 25,45% 33 AngryLittleAlchemist 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 83,95% 26,00% 33 palou 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 82,49% 26,00% 35 EmotionalMongoose 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,27% 24,00% 35 horenkind 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,01% 24,00% 35 Mnementh 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 81,02% 24,00% 38 Kerotan 80 vg\$ 10 vg\$ 77,05% 12,50% 39 forest-spirit 55 vg\$ 8 vg\$ 72,28% 14,55% 40 PSintend0 30 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 83,16% 23,33% 40 zygote 25 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 86,31% 28,00% 42 Bofferbrauer2 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,50% 20,00% 42 hiccupthehuman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,70% 20,00% 42 JSG87 50 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 67,63% 10,00% 42 ninjapirate42 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,20% 20,00% 42 RodrigoCard 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 76,11% 20,00% 42 S.Peelman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,54% 20,00% 48 KingoftheBRUCE 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 69,60% 12,00% 48 Luke888 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 71,09% 12,00% 48 Thaddaeus02 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 70,33% 12,00% 51 Harkins1721 30 vg\$ 2 vg\$ 66,79% 6,67% 52 Marach 50 vg\$ -1 vg\$ 57,15% -2,00% 53 ABizzel1 250 vg\$ -3 vg\$ 58,81% -1,20% 54 xytherion 25 vg\$ -5 vg\$ 39,96% -20,00% 55 fedfed 25 vg\$ -16 vg\$ 0,00% -64,00% 56 Darwinianevolution 250 vg\$ -21 vg\$ 51,97% -8,40%

Winpercent ranking

 rank username bet winnings accuracy winpercent 1 Carl 580 vg\$ 282 vg\$ 78,30% 48,62% 2 ironmanDX 195 vg\$ 81 vg\$ 85,25% 41,54% 3 cycycychris 390 vg\$ 160 vg\$ 82,65% 41,03% 4 derpysquirtle64 305 vg\$ 125 vg\$ 87,07% 40,98% 5 kirby007 1550 vg\$ 587 vg\$ 80,41% 37,87% 6 Welfare 175 vg\$ 65 vg\$ 81,94% 37,14% 7 Aka-Gami 500 vg\$ 182 vg\$ 92,91% 36,40% 8 Machina 1600 vg\$ 579 vg\$ 86,36% 36,19% 9 Ka-pi96 725 vg\$ 249 vg\$ 81,71% 34,34% 10 PDF 3430 vg\$ 1049 vg\$ 82,30% 30,58% 11 melbye 125 vg\$ 38 vg\$ 87,17% 30,40% 12 RedKingXIII 110 vg\$ 33 vg\$ 83,40% 30,00% 13 Marth 2500 vg\$ 708 vg\$ 85,48% 28,32% 14 zygote 25 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 86,31% 28,00% 15 VGPolyglot 1800 vg\$ 489 vg\$ 76,51% 27,17% 16 TalonMan 225 vg\$ 61 vg\$ 85,16% 27,11% 17 AngryLittleAlchemist 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 83,95% 26,00% 17 palou 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 82,49% 26,00% 19 setsunatenshi 105 vg\$ 27 vg\$ 77,66% 25,71% 20 fory77 500 vg\$ 128 vg\$ 83,10% 25,60% 21 AnmolRed 55 vg\$ 14 vg\$ 82,04% 25,45% 22 Dark_Lord_2008 230 vg\$ 58 vg\$ 74,61% 25,22% 23 EmotionalMongoose 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,27% 24,00% 23 horenkind 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,01% 24,00% 23 Mnementh 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 81,02% 24,00% 26 PSintend0 30 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 83,16% 23,33% 27 morenoIngrato 130 vg\$ 29 vg\$ 77,98% 22,31% 28 Stuart23 145 vg\$ 32 vg\$ 83,33% 22,07% 29 theDX 100 vg\$ 22 vg\$ 78,24% 22,00% 30 ryuzaki57 150 vg\$ 31 vg\$ 79,15% 20,67% 31 Bofferbrauer2 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,50% 20,00% 31 hiccupthehuman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,70% 20,00% 31 ninjapirate42 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,20% 20,00% 31 RodrigoCard 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 76,11% 20,00% 31 S.Peelman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,54% 20,00% 36 Slarvax 750 vg\$ 127 vg\$ 76,92% 16,93% 37 LinkDaHero 500 vg\$ 84 vg\$ 74,98% 16,80% 38 WoodenPints 500 vg\$ 80 vg\$ 74,37% 16,00% 39 Mr.Playstation 140 vg\$ 21 vg\$ 73,97% 15,00% 40 forest-spirit 55 vg\$ 8 vg\$ 72,28% 14,55% 41 Ucouldntbemorewrong 550 vg\$ 69 vg\$ 72,50% 12,55% 42 Kerotan 80 vg\$ 10 vg\$ 77,05% 12,50% 43 AntonTeiosanu 420 vg\$ 51 vg\$ 74,13% 12,14% 44 KingoftheBRUCE 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 69,60% 12,00% 44 Luke888 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 71,09% 12,00% 44 Thaddaeus02 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 70,33% 12,00% 47 jason1637 180 vg\$ 18 vg\$ 61,89% 10,00% 47 JSG87 50 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 67,63% 10,00% 49 Harkins1721 30 vg\$ 2 vg\$ 66,79% 6,67% 50 dravenmanson 1230 vg\$ 74 vg\$ 60,06% 6,02% 51 NeverEndingStory 995 vg\$ 26 vg\$ 64,98% 2,61% 52 ABizzel1 250 vg\$ -3 vg\$ 58,81% -1,20% 53 Marach 50 vg\$ -1 vg\$ 57,15% -2,00% 54 Darwinianevolution 250 vg\$ -21 vg\$ 51,97% -8,40% 55 xytherion 25 vg\$ -5 vg\$ 39,96% -20,00% 56 fedfed 25 vg\$ -16 vg\$ 0,00% -64,00%

Accuracy Ranking

 rank username bet winnings accuracy winpercent 1 Aka-Gami 500 vg\$ 182 vg\$ 92,91% 36,40% 2 melbye 125 vg\$ 38 vg\$ 87,17% 30,40% 3 derpysquirtle64 305 vg\$ 125 vg\$ 87,07% 40,98% 4 Machina 1600 vg\$ 579 vg\$ 86,36% 36,19% 5 zygote 25 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 86,31% 28,00% 6 Marth 2500 vg\$ 708 vg\$ 85,48% 28,32% 7 ironmanDX 195 vg\$ 81 vg\$ 85,25% 41,54% 8 TalonMan 225 vg\$ 61 vg\$ 85,16% 27,11% 9 AngryLittleAlchemist 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 83,95% 26,00% 10 RedKingXIII 110 vg\$ 33 vg\$ 83,40% 30,00% 11 Stuart23 145 vg\$ 32 vg\$ 83,33% 22,07% 12 PSintend0 30 vg\$ 7 vg\$ 83,16% 23,33% 13 fory77 500 vg\$ 128 vg\$ 83,10% 25,60% 14 cycycychris 390 vg\$ 160 vg\$ 82,65% 41,03% 15 palou 50 vg\$ 13 vg\$ 82,49% 26,00% 16 PDF 3430 vg\$ 1049 vg\$ 82,30% 30,58% 17 EmotionalMongoose 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,27% 24,00% 18 AnmolRed 55 vg\$ 14 vg\$ 82,04% 25,45% 19 horenkind 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 82,01% 24,00% 20 Welfare 175 vg\$ 65 vg\$ 81,94% 37,14% 21 Ka-pi96 725 vg\$ 249 vg\$ 81,71% 34,34% 22 Mnementh 50 vg\$ 12 vg\$ 81,02% 24,00% 23 kirby007 1550 vg\$ 587 vg\$ 80,41% 37,87% 24 hiccupthehuman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,70% 20,00% 25 ninjapirate42 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 79,20% 20,00% 26 ryuzaki57 150 vg\$ 31 vg\$ 79,15% 20,67% 27 S.Peelman 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,54% 20,00% 28 Bofferbrauer2 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 78,50% 20,00% 29 Carl 580 vg\$ 282 vg\$ 78,30% 48,62% 30 theDX 100 vg\$ 22 vg\$ 78,24% 22,00% 31 morenoIngrato 130 vg\$ 29 vg\$ 77,98% 22,31% 32 setsunatenshi 105 vg\$ 27 vg\$ 77,66% 25,71% 33 Kerotan 80 vg\$ 10 vg\$ 77,05% 12,50% 34 Slarvax 750 vg\$ 127 vg\$ 76,92% 16,93% 35 VGPolyglot 1800 vg\$ 489 vg\$ 76,51% 27,17% 36 RodrigoCard 25 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 76,11% 20,00% 37 LinkDaHero 500 vg\$ 84 vg\$ 74,98% 16,80% 38 Dark_Lord_2008 230 vg\$ 58 vg\$ 74,61% 25,22% 39 WoodenPints 500 vg\$ 80 vg\$ 74,37% 16,00% 40 AntonTeiosanu 420 vg\$ 51 vg\$ 74,13% 12,14% 41 Mr.Playstation 140 vg\$ 21 vg\$ 73,97% 15,00% 42 Ucouldntbemorewrong 550 vg\$ 69 vg\$ 72,50% 12,55% 43 forest-spirit 55 vg\$ 8 vg\$ 72,28% 14,55% 44 Luke888 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 71,09% 12,00% 45 Thaddaeus02 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 70,33% 12,00% 46 KingoftheBRUCE 25 vg\$ 3 vg\$ 69,60% 12,00% 47 JSG87 50 vg\$ 5 vg\$ 67,63% 10,00% 48 Harkins1721 30 vg\$ 2 vg\$ 66,79% 6,67% 49 NeverEndingStory 995 vg\$ 26 vg\$ 64,98% 2,61% 50 jason1637 180 vg\$ 18 vg\$ 61,89% 10,00% 51 dravenmanson 1230 vg\$ 74 vg\$ 60,06% 6,02% 52 ABizzel1 250 vg\$ -3 vg\$ 58,81% -1,20% 53 Marach 50 vg\$ -1 vg\$ 57,15% -2,00% 54 Darwinianevolution 250 vg\$ -21 vg\$ 51,97% -8,40% 55 xytherion 25 vg\$ -5 vg\$ 39,96% -20,00% 56 fedfed 25 vg\$ -16 vg\$ 0,00% -64,00%

Corresponding round

How you can gain more vg\$ :

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8767361

Last edited by kirby007 - on 03 May 2018

"I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.