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Prediction League Thread - Predict LTD sales end of 2018 and win actual money

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction League Thread - Predict LTD sales end of 2018 and win actual money

So you want to be a contender? Do you think you can out-estimate the analysts? Show off your predicting prowess in the VG Chartz Prediction League.

 How to Play

Each week we will create prediction rounds for Japan, America and Others. In each round you must submit your predictions using our entry form for the mix of software and hardware provided for that round. VG Chartz will provide a list of software and hardware for players to predict sales of (generally expected to be the top performers for that week). To qualify for a given contest, your entry must be received before the closing date. Occasionally, VG Chartz will post some one-off prediction rounds covering sales over a quarter or a year. These rounds can be entered in exactly the same way as the weekly rounds.

 Betting on your predictions

Each prediction you make per round has a minimum bet that you must place of vg$5. For predictions you feel more confident about you can bet more against, for predictions you are less confident about you should bet the mimimum amount. Your total bet amount over the predictions in a round cannot exceed your current wealth - i.e it cannot make you bankrupt to place the bet.

Think wisely about your predictions - use the charting and comparison tools provided by the website to look over historical data and place your money wisely on the predictions you think will pay out the most!

 Your Winnings

Winnings are determined by your prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for a each prediction is calculated as the difference between your prediction and actual figure / actual figure. The prediction accuracy for each prediction is divided by the average accuracy across all users for that prediction and then this ratio is multiplied by your bet on that prediction. This is totalled up over the 15 predictions. An example is the best way to illustrate. Example:

You predict a game will sell 175,000 copies for the week and the game actually sells 200,000. So, we take the difference between your prediction and the actual sales and divide it by the actual sales 25,000 / 200,000. The result, 0.125, represents the percentage your prediction was off from the actual (12.5% off). Subtracting this number from 1 (one represents being wholly accurate) tells us how close or accurate your prediction is to the actual: 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 or 87.5% accurate. Note that if your prediction is off by more than the actual amount (i.e., off by more than 100%), your accuracy will be 0% representing the fact that you were simply not accurate in your prediction (e.g., you predict 100,000 and the actual is 30,000). Your accuracy is then divided by the average accuracy for that prediction, in this case say 50% (100,000 as the average prediction) to give (87.5/50) then multiplied by your original bet. So if you bet vg$10 on this prediction, you would win 10 x (87.5/50) = vg$17.50 (a net profit of vg$7.50 against the original bet). This is repeated across all your bets and totalled up.

 VG Chartz will post the results of each round, one week after the actual data for that period has been posted on the site (to give time for any adjustments to the actual data). Once your bets have been cashed in, changes will not be made if adjustments are made to the actual data on the site later on. VG Chartz will be the sole determinant of player accuracy and scores. We reserve the right to disqualify anyone from the leauge for any reason.

 Questions about the contest should be directed to http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=235335 or any League Admin

Quicklink towards main prediction page :

http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/

where do i submit my predictions, and where is the information stating what I'm predicting on?

On the frontpage click on the prediction league header., then you will arrive on http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions
Next step is choose a round to enter, which currently displays only one option right now weekly wordwide chart 14th april 2018 http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/enter.php?game=259
Which filled in looks like this 

 

 

When does a round close and how can i see that?

When you enter a round on the page you fill in your predictions a closing day will be mentioned
As a great reminder open rounds are green, rounds that will close in 2 days will turn orange and rounds closed for predictions will turn red.
Once the payout has been done rounds will turn black.

Rule of thumb rounds close Thursday 14.00 ( GMT +2, Amsterdam ), 14.00 in CEST (UTC+2) which means it closes 12.00 in GMT

Tip if you dont know what to predict
Just take a look at the charts and see if you can make out a trend or an average from previous weeks, or possibly last year or games from a similair genre.

 How do I turn off the notifications to this?

 Profile Settings -> Preferences -> "Receive Notifications for the following events:"

 

Where are the software rounds?

i'm waiting with software untill some things are done that will speed up the process.
Currently if i do a hardware only round lets take round one for the week of 14 april it closed the 11th and normal numbers should be know next week before the 27th unless there is a delay like there is this week.

that means the waiting period is 27th april- 11th april = +- 16 days

now lets take a round with software the USA weekly chart with software for 3 march ( if there was a round that round would have closed on the first of march ) was released on 17th of april

that means the waiting period is 17th april - 1st march = +- 49 days

that means before a rounds payout with software is done it takes a month extra

Once this is familiar for everyone, i could do a HW only round and a SW+HW round in the same week



Suggestions :

-bonus from the next round for the person that gets closer on a single prediction

 

Standings after Round 1:

Total Winnings 5714 vg$ (5668 vg$ considering losses)
Total Bets: 22210 vg$
Total Participants: 56
Bets over 1k: 6

Average Bet : 397 vg$
Average Winnings Per User: 101 vg$
Average Winnings Ratio: 19,36%
Average Accuracy: 75,04%

Meadian Bet: 135 vg$
Meadian Winnings: 24 vg$
Meadian Winnings Ratio: 22,03%
Meadian Accuracy: 78,40%

Ranking overall (sum of placements in the other 3 rankings)

rank

username

sum points

1

Aka-Gami

16

1

Machina

16

3

derpysquirtle64

19

4

Marth

21

5

ironmanDX

23

6

cycycychris

26

7

PDF

27

8

kirby007

31

9

melbye

35

10

Carl

36

11

Ka-pi96

37

12

fory77

43

12

TalonMan

43

14

Welfare

44

15

RedKingXIII

45

16

VGPolyglot

55

17

AngryLittleAlchemist

59

17

zygote

59

19

Stuart23

63

20

palou

65

21

AnmolRed

71

22

EmotionalMongoose

75

23

horenkind

77

24

PSintend0

78

24

setsunatenshi

78

26

Dark_Lord_2008

80

26

Mnementh

80

28

ryuzaki57

81

28

Slarvax

81

30

morenoIngrato

84

31

LinkDaHero

87

32

theDX

88

33

WoodenPints

92

34

hiccupthehuman

97

35

ninjapirate42

98

36

S.Peelman

100

36

Ucouldntbemorewrong

100

38

Bofferbrauer2

101

39

AntonTeiosanu

104

40

RodrigoCard

109

41

Mr.Playstation

110

42

Kerotan

113

43

dravenmanson

117

44

forest-spirit

122

45

jason1637

128

45

NeverEndingStory

128

47

JSG87

136

47

Luke888

136

49

Thaddaeus02

137

50

KingoftheBRUCE

138

51

Harkins1721

148

52

ABizzel1

157

53

Marach

158

54

Darwinianevolution

164

54

xytherion

164

56

fedfed

167

 

Winnings ranking

rank

username

bet

winnings

accuracy

winpercent

1

PDF

3430 vg$

1049 vg$

82,30%

30,58%

2

Marth

2500 vg$

708 vg$

85,48%

28,32%

3

kirby007

1550 vg$

587 vg$

80,41%

37,87%

4

Machina

1600 vg$

579 vg$

86,36%

36,19%

5

VGPolyglot

1800 vg$

489 vg$

76,51%

27,17%

6

Carl

580 vg$

282 vg$

78,30%

48,62%

7

Ka-pi96

725 vg$

249 vg$

81,71%

34,34%

8

Aka-Gami

500 vg$

182 vg$

92,91%

36,40%

9

cycycychris

390 vg$

160 vg$

82,65%

41,03%

10

fory77

500 vg$

128 vg$

83,10%

25,60%

11

Slarvax

750 vg$

127 vg$

76,92%

16,93%

12

derpysquirtle64

305 vg$

125 vg$

87,07%

40,98%

13

LinkDaHero

500 vg$

84 vg$

74,98%

16,80%

14

ironmanDX

195 vg$

81 vg$

85,25%

41,54%

15

WoodenPints

500 vg$

80 vg$

74,37%

16,00%

16

dravenmanson

1230 vg$

74 vg$

60,06%

6,02%

17

Ucouldntbemorewrong

550 vg$

69 vg$

72,50%

12,55%

18

Welfare

175 vg$

65 vg$

81,94%

37,14%

19

TalonMan

225 vg$

61 vg$

85,16%

27,11%

20

Dark_Lord_2008

230 vg$

58 vg$

74,61%

25,22%

21

AntonTeiosanu

420 vg$

51 vg$

74,13%

12,14%

22

melbye

125 vg$

38 vg$

87,17%

30,40%

23

RedKingXIII

110 vg$

33 vg$

83,40%

30,00%

24

Stuart23

145 vg$

32 vg$

83,33%

22,07%

25

ryuzaki57

150 vg$

31 vg$

79,15%

20,67%

26

morenoIngrato

130 vg$

29 vg$

77,98%

22,31%

27

setsunatenshi

105 vg$

27 vg$

77,66%

25,71%

28

NeverEndingStory

995 vg$

26 vg$

64,98%

2,61%

29

theDX

100 vg$

22 vg$

78,24%

22,00%

30

Mr.Playstation

140 vg$

21 vg$

73,97%

15,00%

31

jason1637

180 vg$

18 vg$

61,89%

10,00%

32

AnmolRed

55 vg$

14 vg$

82,04%

25,45%

33

AngryLittleAlchemist

50 vg$

13 vg$

83,95%

26,00%

33

palou

50 vg$

13 vg$

82,49%

26,00%

35

EmotionalMongoose

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,27%

24,00%

35

horenkind

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,01%

24,00%

35

Mnementh

50 vg$

12 vg$

81,02%

24,00%

38

Kerotan

80 vg$

10 vg$

77,05%

12,50%

39

forest-spirit

55 vg$

8 vg$

72,28%

14,55%

40

PSintend0

30 vg$

7 vg$

83,16%

23,33%

40

zygote

25 vg$

7 vg$

86,31%

28,00%

42

Bofferbrauer2

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,50%

20,00%

42

hiccupthehuman

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,70%

20,00%

42

JSG87

50 vg$

5 vg$

67,63%

10,00%

42

ninjapirate42

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,20%

20,00%

42

RodrigoCard

25 vg$

5 vg$

76,11%

20,00%

42

S.Peelman

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,54%

20,00%

48

KingoftheBRUCE

25 vg$

3 vg$

69,60%

12,00%

48

Luke888

25 vg$

3 vg$

71,09%

12,00%

48

Thaddaeus02

25 vg$

3 vg$

70,33%

12,00%

51

Harkins1721

30 vg$

2 vg$

66,79%

6,67%

52

Marach

50 vg$

-1 vg$

57,15%

-2,00%

53

ABizzel1

250 vg$

-3 vg$

58,81%

-1,20%

54

xytherion

25 vg$

-5 vg$

39,96%

-20,00%

55

fedfed

25 vg$

-16 vg$

0,00%

-64,00%

56

Darwinianevolution

250 vg$

-21 vg$

51,97%

-8,40%

 

Winpercent ranking

rank

username

bet

winnings

accuracy

winpercent

1

Carl

580 vg$

282 vg$

78,30%

48,62%

2

ironmanDX

195 vg$

81 vg$

85,25%

41,54%

3

cycycychris

390 vg$

160 vg$

82,65%

41,03%

4

derpysquirtle64

305 vg$

125 vg$

87,07%

40,98%

5

kirby007

1550 vg$

587 vg$

80,41%

37,87%

6

Welfare

175 vg$

65 vg$

81,94%

37,14%

7

Aka-Gami

500 vg$

182 vg$

92,91%

36,40%

8

Machina

1600 vg$

579 vg$

86,36%

36,19%

9

Ka-pi96

725 vg$

249 vg$

81,71%

34,34%

10

PDF

3430 vg$

1049 vg$

82,30%

30,58%

11

melbye

125 vg$

38 vg$

87,17%

30,40%

12

RedKingXIII

110 vg$

33 vg$

83,40%

30,00%

13

Marth

2500 vg$

708 vg$

85,48%

28,32%

14

zygote

25 vg$

7 vg$

86,31%

28,00%

15

VGPolyglot

1800 vg$

489 vg$

76,51%

27,17%

16

TalonMan

225 vg$

61 vg$

85,16%

27,11%

17

AngryLittleAlchemist

50 vg$

13 vg$

83,95%

26,00%

17

palou

50 vg$

13 vg$

82,49%

26,00%

19

setsunatenshi

105 vg$

27 vg$

77,66%

25,71%

20

fory77

500 vg$

128 vg$

83,10%

25,60%

21

AnmolRed

55 vg$

14 vg$

82,04%

25,45%

22

Dark_Lord_2008

230 vg$

58 vg$

74,61%

25,22%

23

EmotionalMongoose

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,27%

24,00%

23

horenkind

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,01%

24,00%

23

Mnementh

50 vg$

12 vg$

81,02%

24,00%

26

PSintend0

30 vg$

7 vg$

83,16%

23,33%

27

morenoIngrato

130 vg$

29 vg$

77,98%

22,31%

28

Stuart23

145 vg$

32 vg$

83,33%

22,07%

29

theDX

100 vg$

22 vg$

78,24%

22,00%

30

ryuzaki57

150 vg$

31 vg$

79,15%

20,67%

31

Bofferbrauer2

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,50%

20,00%

31

hiccupthehuman

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,70%

20,00%

31

ninjapirate42

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,20%

20,00%

31

RodrigoCard

25 vg$

5 vg$

76,11%

20,00%

31

S.Peelman

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,54%

20,00%

36

Slarvax

750 vg$

127 vg$

76,92%

16,93%

37

LinkDaHero

500 vg$

84 vg$

74,98%

16,80%

38

WoodenPints

500 vg$

80 vg$

74,37%

16,00%

39

Mr.Playstation

140 vg$

21 vg$

73,97%

15,00%

40

forest-spirit

55 vg$

8 vg$

72,28%

14,55%

41

Ucouldntbemorewrong

550 vg$

69 vg$

72,50%

12,55%

42

Kerotan

80 vg$

10 vg$

77,05%

12,50%

43

AntonTeiosanu

420 vg$

51 vg$

74,13%

12,14%

44

KingoftheBRUCE

25 vg$

3 vg$

69,60%

12,00%

44

Luke888

25 vg$

3 vg$

71,09%

12,00%

44

Thaddaeus02

25 vg$

3 vg$

70,33%

12,00%

47

jason1637

180 vg$

18 vg$

61,89%

10,00%

47

JSG87

50 vg$

5 vg$

67,63%

10,00%

49

Harkins1721

30 vg$

2 vg$

66,79%

6,67%

50

dravenmanson

1230 vg$

74 vg$

60,06%

6,02%

51

NeverEndingStory

995 vg$

26 vg$

64,98%

2,61%

52

ABizzel1

250 vg$

-3 vg$

58,81%

-1,20%

53

Marach

50 vg$

-1 vg$

57,15%

-2,00%

54

Darwinianevolution

250 vg$

-21 vg$

51,97%

-8,40%

55

xytherion

25 vg$

-5 vg$

39,96%

-20,00%

56

fedfed

25 vg$

-16 vg$

0,00%

-64,00%

 

Accuracy Ranking

rank

username

bet

winnings

accuracy

winpercent

1

Aka-Gami

500 vg$

182 vg$

92,91%

36,40%

2

melbye

125 vg$

38 vg$

87,17%

30,40%

3

derpysquirtle64

305 vg$

125 vg$

87,07%

40,98%

4

Machina

1600 vg$

579 vg$

86,36%

36,19%

5

zygote

25 vg$

7 vg$

86,31%

28,00%

6

Marth

2500 vg$

708 vg$

85,48%

28,32%

7

ironmanDX

195 vg$

81 vg$

85,25%

41,54%

8

TalonMan

225 vg$

61 vg$

85,16%

27,11%

9

AngryLittleAlchemist

50 vg$

13 vg$

83,95%

26,00%

10

RedKingXIII

110 vg$

33 vg$

83,40%

30,00%

11

Stuart23

145 vg$

32 vg$

83,33%

22,07%

12

PSintend0

30 vg$

7 vg$

83,16%

23,33%

13

fory77

500 vg$

128 vg$

83,10%

25,60%

14

cycycychris

390 vg$

160 vg$

82,65%

41,03%

15

palou

50 vg$

13 vg$

82,49%

26,00%

16

PDF

3430 vg$

1049 vg$

82,30%

30,58%

17

EmotionalMongoose

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,27%

24,00%

18

AnmolRed

55 vg$

14 vg$

82,04%

25,45%

19

horenkind

50 vg$

12 vg$

82,01%

24,00%

20

Welfare

175 vg$

65 vg$

81,94%

37,14%

21

Ka-pi96

725 vg$

249 vg$

81,71%

34,34%

22

Mnementh

50 vg$

12 vg$

81,02%

24,00%

23

kirby007

1550 vg$

587 vg$

80,41%

37,87%

24

hiccupthehuman

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,70%

20,00%

25

ninjapirate42

25 vg$

5 vg$

79,20%

20,00%

26

ryuzaki57

150 vg$

31 vg$

79,15%

20,67%

27

S.Peelman

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,54%

20,00%

28

Bofferbrauer2

25 vg$

5 vg$

78,50%

20,00%

29

Carl

580 vg$

282 vg$

78,30%

48,62%

30

theDX

100 vg$

22 vg$

78,24%

22,00%

31

morenoIngrato

130 vg$

29 vg$

77,98%

22,31%

32

setsunatenshi

105 vg$

27 vg$

77,66%

25,71%

33

Kerotan

80 vg$

10 vg$

77,05%

12,50%

34

Slarvax

750 vg$

127 vg$

76,92%

16,93%

35

VGPolyglot

1800 vg$

489 vg$

76,51%

27,17%

36

RodrigoCard

25 vg$

5 vg$

76,11%

20,00%

37

LinkDaHero

500 vg$

84 vg$

74,98%

16,80%

38

Dark_Lord_2008

230 vg$

58 vg$

74,61%

25,22%

39

WoodenPints

500 vg$

80 vg$

74,37%

16,00%

40

AntonTeiosanu

420 vg$

51 vg$

74,13%

12,14%

41

Mr.Playstation

140 vg$

21 vg$

73,97%

15,00%

42

Ucouldntbemorewrong

550 vg$

69 vg$

72,50%

12,55%

43

forest-spirit

55 vg$

8 vg$

72,28%

14,55%

44

Luke888

25 vg$

3 vg$

71,09%

12,00%

45

Thaddaeus02

25 vg$

3 vg$

70,33%

12,00%

46

KingoftheBRUCE

25 vg$

3 vg$

69,60%

12,00%

47

JSG87

50 vg$

5 vg$

67,63%

10,00%

48

Harkins1721

30 vg$

2 vg$

66,79%

6,67%

49

NeverEndingStory

995 vg$

26 vg$

64,98%

2,61%

50

jason1637

180 vg$

18 vg$

61,89%

10,00%

51

dravenmanson

1230 vg$

74 vg$

60,06%

6,02%

52

ABizzel1

250 vg$

-3 vg$

58,81%

-1,20%

53

Marach

50 vg$

-1 vg$

57,15%

-2,00%

54

Darwinianevolution

250 vg$

-21 vg$

51,97%

-8,40%

55

xytherion

25 vg$

-5 vg$

39,96%

-20,00%

56

fedfed

25 vg$

-16 vg$

0,00%

-64,00%

 Corresponding round

 

 

How you can gain more vg$ :

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8767361

 

 

Last edited by kirby007 - on 03 May 2018

 "I think people should define the word crap"

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Around the Network
Okay

Bristow9091 said:
Okay

You had 1 job!



axumblade said:
Bristow9091 said:
Okay

You had 1 job!

Oh shit, does this mean I messed up? PLEASE DON'T HIT ME AGAIN! :'(



axumblade said:
Bristow9091 said:
Okay

You had 1 job!

axum do a smeags and ban him for a day



 "I think people should define the word crap"

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Around the Network
kirby007 said:
axumblade said:

You had 1 job!

axum do a smeags and ban him for a day

Karma.



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kirby007 said:
axumblade said:

You had 1 job!

axum do a smeags and ban him for a day

Meh. I'm too bad of a mod to do that. 



axumblade said:
kirby007 said:

axum do a smeags and ban him for a day

Meh. I'm too bad of a mod to do that. 

Not to mention you're a nice guy ;) <3



So, does that mean we can post in this, then?

RolStoppable said:
kirby007 said:

axum do a smeags and ban him for a day

Karma.

why are you butting in eh?



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