zorg1000 on 21 March 2018
| Shadow1980 said: A this point it's too early to call, really. So far, after two months it's pretty close, but we still have 10 months left to go. I think it still has the potential to be very close, though. Honestly, I think it's going to depend on whether Nintendo issues any price cuts this year or otherwise does something that will generate sales growth, such as a surprise announcement for Pokemon Gen VIII being available some time this fall. The Switch will need to be up 17.9% or more over last year to best the PS4's 2015 performance. It's possible, but not guaranteed. The holidays will likely be the deciding factor. The PS4 was actually down 7% YoY for the Q1-Q3 period of 2015. The Switch needs to sell about another 1780k from March through September, an average of just over 254k/month, to keep pace with that the PS4 did in Q1-Q3 2015. That's not impossible. However, the PS4 was up nearly 55% YoY in Q4 2015, selling 3397k units. That's considerably more than the 2545k the Switch did in Q4 2017. Right now, I'd give it 70-30 odds in favor of the PS4 because so far Nintendo hasn't announced anything that might result in noticeable sales growth. But if Nintendo does issue a price cut, or has some big Black Friday deals, or Pokemon comes out this fall, then I'd move the odds closer to 50-50, maybe 60-40 in the Switch's favor if Nintendo does all three. |
Ya its definitely possible for either to win and should be competitive regardless of who wins.
One other potential factor i would add is the dark horse, Nintendo Labo. It could flop, be a moderate success or be a huge hit.
If it can successfully capture a strong kid/family/casual audience than it has potential to really boost Switch sales this year.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
