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I think maybe you are trying to define flop in relation to Nintendo's major franchises. I doubt Nintendo thinks Labo is gonna sell 10 million. It is a niche product. Its basically a kids toy. I think it might hit 2 million lifetime and I would consider that a major success. And I don't expect big sales on release week either. I imagine it will sell decently during the holidays as that's normally when kids get presents and in general will just sell a few thousand a week for a few years.

Kids toys are expensive, Labo would be probably one of several "big" gifts for Christmas for a middle class kid.