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thismeintiel on 18 March 2018
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TheDarkShape said:
thismeintiel said:

I don't think the problem was TFA, as it still did respectable numbers in China.  The problem was trying to expand the audience with TLJ.  Even though TFA wasn't perfect, it still has the same positive spirit as the OG trilogy, which Disney has been running on TVs in China.  TLJ was a more nihilistic take on the franchise, and it didn't sit well with many fans. 

Being a sequel doesn't necessarily mean it will do worse than the original.  Marvel has been building off each standalone installment, with the sequels doing better than the one before.  Of course, there was a lot of build up for TFA, so no one really expected TLJ to match it.  But, no one saw a drop as big as it had.  Again, you're putting too much emphasis on TFA.  You could say that those who disliked TFA caused a lower opening.  But, it was only 14.8% (-$78.1M) down opening weekend.  It's continued drop to being ~35.5% (-$733.2M) down rests completely on the shoulders of it being a good film or not.

ROTS got a boost due to it being a little bit better/darker film and also because it was the lead up to the creation of Darth Vader and the beginning of ANH.  Episode IX has a lot working against it.  Not only does it not have the most iconic villain in it, but it also follows an installment that turned a lot of fans away from future installments.  TLJ didn't really leave anything at the end to look forward to.  And even if it tries to retcon some things that happened in TLJ and/or address loose ends TFA left to be tied up in a sequel that TLJ ignored, it will just become a muddy mess of a film.  I won't be surprised if IX opens below $200M.  A first for the new SW trilogy.

TFA was hated in China, and that was reflected in the gross of Rogue One.  Remember, it's a new franchise to them, so they don't really see the Episode/Star Wars Story distinction that we do.  TFA made $124m, RO made $69m (despite the inclusion of Donnie Yen).  Two films in a row they didn't like.  I know you like using expectations as a gauge, and every single pre-release TLJ China prediction I saw had it dropping off even further from RO.  The franchise is simply a disappointment in that market - they gave TFA a chance, didn't like it, and so the next one flopped.  I don't say that to disparage TFA, as it's a film I like.

All I can ask is that you find me a massively anticipated film that opened to huge numbers and then had a sequel that stayed flat or grossed.  The only one I can think of that even stayed flat is The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

I don't get this obsession with making TLJ disappointing sales TFA's fault.  A 2.4x multiplier and a take of $124.2M, higher than many Marvel films, doesn't exactly equal they hated it.  It's a decent reception that could have been pushed higher with a better followup.  A multiplier of just 1.5x and a take of just $42.6M, plus only lasting a week or so in theaters, means they hated TLJ, though.  Also, China has gotten over the pandering to them with Asian actors or filming in China, so RO's take wouldn't be influenced by that.  It was a spinoff, simple as that.  It's not going to bring in the same crowd.  Same thing happened in every region. 

Don't really get your last point.  I'll just quote my post.  "Of course, there was a lot of build up for TFA, so no one really expected TLJ to match it.  But, no one saw a drop as big as it had.  Again, you're putting too much emphasis on TFA.  You could say that those who disliked TFA caused a lower opening.  But, it was only 14.8% (-$78.1M) down opening weekend.  It's continued drop to being ~35.5% (-$733.2M) down rests completely on the shoulders of it being a good film or not."