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thismeintiel on 18 March 2018
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TheDarkShape said:
thismeintiel said:

RO is a spinoff.  Of course it's not going to have the same draw as a main installment of the franchise.  Though, as this thread shows, TLJ is suffering some extremely poor legs, as RO has been outperforming it overall for the past 2+ months.  Still, if anything, TFA shows that SW can have a decent draw from China.  It made $124.2M there, after a $52.3M opening, which is a 2.4x multiplier.  Obviously, the Chinese didn't exactly like TLJ, either.  It opened up lower than RO, with just $28.1M.  Even if it opened lower, if it still enjoyed the same multiplier, it should have made $67.4M.  Instead it was pulled out of theatres the next week, only making $42.6M.  If Disney was attempting to expand SW's popularity in China, TLJ was not the film to do it with.

BOM and movie analysts stated that TLJ was safely going to do $750M+ because of the fact it launched only 11.3% behind TFA.  It would have fallen down to 20% behind over the rest of its run to just make $750M.  No one really expected that kind of drop, which is why the range was given.  Most probably thought the max it was going to fall was ~15%-18%, which would have been ~$768.1M-796.2M, but left open the possibility of it doing even more if held. 

Same goes for WW,  TLJ opened 17.9% below TFA.  If it had held, it would have made ~$929M.  That's what gives you the range of ~$1.7B-1.8B.  What's very telling is that even after the large 2nd weekend drop, analysts thought that the film would still be able to hit $1.6B WW.

Ah, I was referring more to predictions before the film's release - most I saw were in the 675-750 zone.  I won't argue at all that a 220 OW pushed expectations up for how it should have finished.

You're absolutely right that TFA was not the film to launch the franchise with in China.  For a lot of these emerging markets - especially the ones that didn't have easy access to the OT, like China - these Disney-era films are confusing.  First you get a sequel that's heavily reliant on films you haven't seen, then a prequel with none of those characters, then a sequel to the first film, and then in a couple months another prequel with yet more new characters.  I'd be annoyed, too.  There's no rhyme or reason to it when you don't have the OT as a foundation.  The Marvel films, for as many as there are, are (generally) chronological and can be followed that way.

I do think it's a little silly to have expected TLJ to have matched TFA's legs - it's a sequel and will therefore be more frontloaded, as fans rush out even faster and people who didn't like TFA don't make up the difference.

I'm curious to see what IX does.  Revenge of the Sith bounced back from Attack of the Clones because of the finale factor.  I don't know if IX will get the same boost - even if it's marketed as the final episode, people know Star Wars isn't going away this time.

I don't think the problem was TFA, as it still did respectable numbers in China.  The problem was trying to expand the audience with TLJ.  Even though TFA wasn't perfect, it still has the same positive spirit as the OG trilogy, which Disney has been running on TVs in China.  TLJ was a more nihilistic take on the franchise, and it didn't sit well with many fans. 

Being a sequel doesn't necessarily mean it will do worse than the original.  Marvel has been building off each standalone installment, with the sequels doing better than the one before.  Of course, there was a lot of build up for TFA, so no one really expected TLJ to match it.  But, no one saw a drop as big as it had.  Again, you're putting too much emphasis on TFA.  You could say that those who disliked TFA caused a lower opening.  But, it was only 14.8% (-$78.1M) down opening weekend.  It's continued drop to being ~35.5% (-$733.2M) down rests completely on the shoulders of it being a good film or not.

ROTS got a boost due to it being a little bit better/darker film and also because it was the lead up to the creation of Darth Vader and the beginning of ANH.  Episode IX has a lot working against it.  Not only does it not have the most iconic villain in it, but it also follows an installment that turned a lot of fans away from future installments.  TLJ didn't really leave anything at the end to look forward to.  And even if it tries to retcon some things that happened in TLJ and/or address loose ends TFA left to be tied up in a sequel that TLJ ignored, it will just become a muddy mess of a film.  I won't be surprised if IX opens below $200M.  A first for the new SW trilogy.