TheDarkShape said: I'm not going to argue TLJ's reception, because it did burn a lot of people. (I do think it's weird to say the expectation was 750/1.7 - 700-750m domestically was totally doable, but that's expecting a pretty small drop internationally, especially when Rogue One showed Star Wars has no pull whatsoever in China - my prediction was 704/1.4, expecting the same 50/50 split RO had) |
RO is a spinoff. Of course it's not going to have the same draw as a main installment of the franchise. Though, as this thread shows, TLJ is suffering some extremely poor legs, as RO has been outperforming it overall for the past 2+ months. Still, if anything, TFA shows that SW can have a decent draw from China. It made $124.2M there, after a $52.3M opening, which is a 2.4x multiplier. Obviously, the Chinese didn't exactly like TLJ, either. It opened up lower than RO, with just $28.1M. Even if it opened lower, if it still enjoyed the same multiplier, it should have made $67.4M. Instead it was pulled out of theatres the next week, only making $42.6M. If Disney was attempting to expand SW's popularity in China, TLJ was not the film to do it with.
BOM and movie analysts stated that TLJ was safely going to do $750M+ because of the fact it launched only 11.3% behind TFA. It would have fallen down to 20% behind over the rest of its run to just make $750M. No one really expected that kind of drop, which is why the range was given. Most probably thought the max it was going to fall was ~15%-18%, which would have been ~$768.1M-796.2M, but left open the possibility of it doing even more if held.
Same goes for WW, TLJ opened 17.9% below TFA. If it had held, it would have made ~$929M. That's what gives you the range of ~$1.7B-1.8B. What's very telling is that even after the large 2nd weekend drop, analysts thought that the film would still be able to hit $1.6B WW.