Nintendos 2018 Line up is pretty boring for me, so far

[zorg1000]

DélioPT said:

Well, those games have had iterations in the past and they didn't set the world on the fire.
Ask anyone about system sellers that Nintendo has and you'll hear 3D Mario, Zelda, Pokémon, MK, Animal Crossing, Smash, 2D Mario, etc., but you won't hear Kirby, Mario Tennis, Yoshi, etc.
And that's why i believe those games won't cut it, not in 2018 or beyond. Cut it, as in, sell the system.

Ports will always have a shorter appeal (they already sold to a userbase before). There are exceptions, though, like MK.
Those exceptions are the minority.

I think that assuming that sales could be better if Switch had more system sellers in 2018 is a reasonable assumption. One that could be made for every console.
Heck, even more appealing franchises would probably result in better sales.

 

To be honest, Switch is doing better than i expected. Specially in Europe.
But using a month and a half of data is enough for you to claim victory for 2018?
From what i saw with PS4, sales kinda drop after March, only to pick up in September. And from here, a great number of system sellers come out and drive HW.
If we expect the same for Switch, what games will drive HW from September onwards? Smash is a big, big seller, but i hope it's not alone.

Your problem is that you keep wanting to talk about games in isolation when that's not what sells a system. Those games will cut it because there is a steady flow of quality titles from Nintendo & 3rd parties (Japanese, Western & indies) for the rest of the year.

Both of the Wii U ports of 2017 are exceptions to your made up rule, Mario Kart & Pokken both are going to do significantly better than their original releases. The Wii U ports of 2018 could very well do the same, especially DKC which averaged about 5 million before Wii U where it did like 1/3 of that.

Yes, obviously more big games results in potentially bigger sales, that goes without saying but by the logic you are using we would have to say every year is poorly planned because even in a stacked year could be better with a couple more big games.

 

We only have 1.5 months of vgchartz estimates but we also have things like Media Create and Amazon rankings which show no notable drop in sales in the 2nd half of February or early March and with Kirby coming this week there is no reason to expect a drop in the coming weeks.

 

Media Create will have Switch at 650-700k & NPD wil have 900k-1m putting Japan+US at ~1.6 million in Q1. Add in Europe, Canada, Latin America, Australia & Asia and you are looking at ~2.5 million or so which lines right up with their forcast for the quarter of ~2.9 million shipped.

 

The games of Spring/Summer do not need to be massive system sellers, they just need to keep momentum going and considering a handful of those games are going to sell 1-2 million and another handful will sell 300k-1m, a dozen plus small-medium sized hits is enough to maintain momentum.

 

What will push hardware from Sept onward? Smash+Fire Emblem+Yoshi would be enough for the holiday period, thats a 10+ million seller and two ~2 million sellers, along with whatever 3rd parties have planned. Thats just as good or better than last years holiday period.