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My guess is that it'll be as much of a "new game" as Splatoon 2.

So essentially all in the branding. A new logo does not a new game make. I hope it's just a Smash 4.5. Just keep all of the new 3rd party characters. No need to rebalance everything only to drop all of the interesting new characters. Throw in some new modes, new characters, new stages, and maybe a Story Mode. I really don't need the game to play any different and hope they don't touch that. Change a character or two, sure, but keep the core mechanics untouched.