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Sony obviously don't want to repeat the mistakes of the PS3 launch i.e. launching late, at too high a price point with unique hardware architecture. They want to follow the PS4 forumula and get the one-up on Microsoft. I can't see them launching earlier than lat 2019. The first rumours of the PS4 Orbis dev kits were in early 2012 I think, so that would match the time frame. Red Dead Redemption 2 and The Last of Us 2 as launch title would be killer. BC is a must this time too. There is always that 12-18 month post launch peroid that generations share the same games.