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Nuvendil on 24 February 2018
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SWORDF1SH said:
Nuvendil said:

Wise advice.  And thus likely to be disregarded.

More importantly, you need to look at how these new SKUs do in the monthly charts.  Hourlies are fun to track but making calls based on short term hourly observation is ill advised.  

If there's enough SKUs, it can result in an upset, it's happened before.  But the new SKUs are awfully low.  Which as said before doesn't necessarily mean anything, but historically being under 50 usually indicates minimum impact to results.  And half the Xbone skus are 80 or under at the moment.  We'll have to keep an eye on it, but I don't think this will be enough.  There's an outside chance though, since the Switch only has 2 skus.

So you're putting weight on the rankings ? 

Lower units don't make a impact? 

Didn't you say that PS4 and Xbox One having more bundles is what's causing the illusion of a bias? T

hese bundles were hovering around the 200 mark or lower before price cut. Not even close to the 80 mark where you said has minimum impact.

Didn't you condemn putting weight on rankings, but here you are doing just that. 

It's fine to have that opinion but at least acknowledge the possibility of a bias and it's possible to put weight on the rankings even if it's the most simple form like "It's at 80th so it's not doing that great"  etc. 

Like I said, I'm looking at history for this.  Xbone has pulled the bundle bumb rush strategy many times.  So we have a pretty good handle on how this usually plays.  And looking at the past this doesn't look to be enough.  However, as I said, there's a chance.  And the reason is yes, the Switch has 2 SKUs.  So there is a mild distortion.  But I firmly believe it is a mild distortion.  If it was a major one, Amazon would have incorrectly awarded the win more than 1 time.    So it does throw a curve ball into the typical analysis, but so far Amazon's accuracy rate has been fine enough.  

However, the bigger issue for this stratagem is stock.  If Amazon is representative, these outside bundles may not have the necessary stock.  

IF Xbone manages to get all these bundles in the monthly charts, then theres a descent chance of an upset.  If they do not, then either Amazon's stock is very anomalously low OR expect Xbone to lose.  Cause the one thing that to my knowledge has thus far been universally true, no upset has ever occurred based on extra bundles outside the top 100 monthly rankings.  So again, I'm not making any definitive calls right now because this sale has not been going on long enough, we haven't seen if any of these bundles will hit the monthly top 100.