| Megiddo said: It's going to be difficult for the Switch to hit 20 million next fiscal year with a 40-50k weekly average in Japan. I believe that's roughly 2-2.5 million for a year in one of its strongest regions. Hope it has some big plans for the second half of 2018 to be able to reach such a bold goal. |
They will need new software to keep up momentum. Kirby is fairly popular in Japan (though certainly not like Mario or Pokemon), so it should help it in Q1. But of course they will need bigger titles for the rest of the year.
One issue with your analysis is that it does not include the bigger bumps that come from holidays.
Though I too remain skeptical that they will hit 20 million. If they do not introduce more mainstream titles, of which they still have plenty of options (Pokemon, 2D Mario, 2D Zelda, Smash, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, etc), and/or adjust pricing then I don't think they will maintain even their current momentum much less being able to expand it.
