What do yo think will be the hardware specifications of PS5 if it arrives arround 2019-2020?

[KBG29]

Intrinsic said:

Thats because you are basing your calculations off the wrong constants. Look at it this way instead.

Forget whatever one GPU or the other has achieved and how, instead look at the individual compute units and their clocks.

So start with the PS4 OG.
PS4OG = 20CU (2 deactivated)@800mhz = 1.8TF (28nm)
PS4pro = 40CU (4 deactivated)@911mhz = 4.2TF (16nm)

What does that tell you? Exactly doubling the GPU Compute units should theoretically give you 3.6TF. Assuming the clocks stays identical. However, because the GPU has been upclocked from 800mhz to 911mhz that TF value went up from 3.6TF to 4.2TF. And this is before any architecture inprovements have been taken into account.

Now lets use the XB1X as the base.

XB1X = 44CU (4 deactivated)@1172mhz = 6TF (16nm)
PS5/XB2 = 88CU (8 deactivated) @1172 = 12TF (7nm)

Now I am even lowballing this, because

1. one constant going from higher to lower fabrication processes is being able to clock higher because of better thermal efficiency. So at the very least the next gen GPUs should be clocked higher than the 1172mhz seen in the XB1X. 
2. I am assuming that as much as 8 CUs will be deactivated to improved yields.
3. We are not taking any architectural design improvements into account.

I do not know why you are using the standards you are using for your theory, when you have very accurate data from the already existing PS4pro and XB1X to see exactly what you can expect from a direct fabrication shrink and upclock when they went from 28nm to 16nm. 

As I have said before and keep saying, the next generation of consoles will not come until 7nm chip fabrication is available and maybe even mature. They will wait. But what I have just pointed out is exactly what to expect from a APU that is 360mm sq as we have in the XB1X built using the 7nm process. 

Lastly, by how much do you think the system can be up-clocked? Can we go up to 1300mhz? 1500mhz? Whatever it is; just know that for every 117mhz clock increase you add an addition 1.2TF of performance. So if its clocked at `1300+mhz you are looking at a 14TF+ GPU. See why i expect it may even be as high as 15TF?

Now if we start talking discrete CPU/GPU? then its a totally different ball game. With that they could have a 300mm sq chip as the GPU alone, keep the clock locked to 1172mhz, but increase CUs from 88 to as much as 140!!! And thats how you get to ~19TF. 

 

Very nice post. I think you are absolutely on point. Look at the evidence we already have, look at the road maps, and you can start to poaint a pretty clear picture. It all just depends on what stratagy Sony takes.

I still think a PS4 Premium in maybe even early 2019 on 7nm for all PS4 games at native 4K wouldn't be a bad idea. Then let PS5 come with AMD's Next gen GPU tech and Zen 3 on 7nm+ in 2021. We know they are going to shrink PS4 architecture to 7nm anyways, so might as well take advantage of it for one last upgrade. I don't think the core PlayStation audience would have any issue buying a PS4 Premium in 2019 and a PS5 in 2021. The move to 7nm+ should be the last revision to PS4 simply to cut cost across the line, and let it ride out it's twilight years.