bigjon said:
thismeintiel said:

TLJ is actually going to end up ~$730M-740M behind TFA.  Which is ~$80M more than JL's take.  Pretty bad when they were most likely only expecting to be down by ~$250M-$350M, which BOM called the "safe bet."

Though, I don't agree with your assessment of IW's chances at the BO.  Avengers:AOU passed Iron Man 3 by ~$190M WW.  Don't see why IW can't at least match that.  Especially when it has pretty much everyone's fave MCU characters in it.  As long as the movie isn't godawful like JL, which I don't think any MCU has been, or seem like a total clusterfuck, I think it has a good chance to have a great BO result.  There's a chance it could beat the OG Avengers, but even if it doesn't, I doubt it will be much below it.

TLJ was never going to make as much as TFA. TFA was a generational event. Perfect storm. No competition. 30+ years of pent up demand for original cast. etc.

Jumaniji is the a huge difference here. TFA went up against a bad Chipmunks movie that was pretty much panned. Jumanji looks to be one of the biggest surprises ever. Probably will hit 400 million. 

Combine the fact that TFA had more pent up demand and hype with the added competition of Jumanji and I think what TLJ did was respectable. Not great. But good enough.

No one said it was going to.  But, it also shouldn't be down $730M+.  No competition?  TFA had plenty of competition.  Daddy's Home and The Revenant were larger hits, opening higher than Jumanji (which opened lower than $38M), and you had smaller hits like Sisters, The Big Short, The Forest, and Ride Along 2 in mid-January (TFA still went on to make $84M more at the DBO after that weekend.)  Kung Fu Panda 3 also came out in late January, which could have helped stop it dead, but it still went on to do another ~$40M at the DBO.  The difference?  TFA was actually competition for them.  One of the big reasons Jumanji has done so well is that TLJ didn't put up much of a fight.  Fans were disappointed by it and needed something else to watch.  This is what helped Jumanji outgross TLJ by $77.2M at the DBO in January.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 20 February 2018