Prediction: PS5 will have the longest lifecicle of any PS console

[KBG29]

Mummelmann said:
I think OP is the opposite of right. With the market moving faster and faster and static products having to resort to more and more extra features, accessories, revisions and bells & whistles, cycles will become either shorter and more intense, or they will be eliminated, in principal at least. PS2 came out, dominated and rode the hem of a massive, global paradigm shift in games development, as well as the steer towards more western-centric games and gaming. It was the perfect storm with the perfect market conditions, and the slow penetration of HD TV in the beginning, as well as the UHD format wars and fairly slow start of blu-ray and HD-DVD helped it a whole lot.

In short; I disagree completely.

Just curious. So, do you think we are going to see 3 to 5 year cycles where we get devices that are not true genrational leaps, but rather make minor advances in resolution, frame rate, and OS responsiveness? Are you thinking that we are basically heading towards a future where consoles are basically the Smartphone of the home theater world?

I am just curious at this blistering rate, where do devs aim when they develop their games? It is one thing to develop a Phone title with a small group in a few months, but when you are looking at a project that takes 500 people and 4 - 6 years, a reliable baseline is much more important. 

That is why I think AAA gaming has to have a hybrid of generations, and the yearly optional upgrades. A base system that sets the development standards for a decade gives everyone a set target, and allows projects to stay on focus.

Perhapps with the massive amount of work going into scalability on both game engines/tools, and CPU/GPU tech, they can just aim for a midline target, and scale up and down as needed. Maybe a set baseline is no longer needed. 

Whatever the case, it is by far the most interesting time in the 25 years I have been following the gaming industry. So many ways companies, could go, and so much potential for failure, or complete domination of the industry. Going to be interesting to see how the next decade plays out.