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Farsala on 01 February 2018
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Hiku said:
Farsala said:

I don't know for sure.

Even at 32.5% it is difficult, because another big game like DQXI PS4 only got 11%. I can believe 20-25% in JP due to shortages, but we shall see in about a month or less.

If it truly did 2m then I am definitely glad, been playing it with my friend from Japan and we have been having a blast. Well deserved of high sales.

Even without shortages, Tekken 7 had 21,5% digital sales during it's opening month.
[PS4] Tekken 7 – 100,010 (78,484 physical, 21,526 digital) 21,5% digital

I can't speak for everyone's mindset, but when it comes to me I'm more likely to go for digital if it's a game I plan to play over a long period of time. (As having it accessible at all times is more convenient than swapping discs often.) That's usually not the case for Jrpgs. I play through them once and then I'm done. But a game like Street Fighter 4 I played actively for 6 years. And Monster Hunter is the type of game to get regular free updates, weekly challenge quests, etc, and it just generally motivates progression long after you 'finish' the game.

So I can see why games like Tekken and MH can be more attractive as digital options for that reason.
I'm not sure how the popularity between MHW and DQXI differs overall (PS4 + 3DS + Switch), but on PS4 alone there's no doubt that MHW was much more popular first week.
And from what I can tell, DQXI only sold through 76% of it's initial shipment: http://nintendoeverything.com/dragon-quest-xi-sold-through-76-of-its-initial-shipment-in-japan-gave-3ds-a-huge-boost/
Although that seems to count both 3DS and PS4.
But MHW reportedly did 95%. So everything seems to be in favor of more digital for MHW.

If Tekken 7 could do 21,5% then I think a sold out MHW could probably do 32,5%.

You see I only chose DQXI PS4 because it sold over 1m. It is quite easy for low selling games to have a high digital ratio. But even low selling games don't get that high of a ratio often, despite how easy it is. For big games of course it would be unprecedented.

CoD WWII had a 19% digital ratio, and its one of the biggest games for PS4 in japan, but it still didn't sell enough. MGSV PP 14%.

Jumping to a million seller again FFXV had ~10% similar to DQXI.

MH4 3DS had 10% and MH4U 3DS had 7.5% so I definitely think 20% is more realistic for MHW since its a PS4 game with shortages.