nemo37 said:
I have sort of mentioned this before, but Nintendo does have a tendency to either overestimate or underestimate themselves. Their 2012 (April 2012- March 2013) targets and sales are a good example of that. In that period they expected to ship 9 million Wii Us and 18 million 3DSs; the actual results ended up being 2.72 million units Wii Us shipped and about 13 million 3DSs shipped. While it is true that Nintendo could have more planned for this year (I certainly hope they do, and I hope they get those plans rolling as soon as possible because the competition with regards to software this year is though), there is also the chance that Nintendo believes Wii U ports (which granted are still new to many new Switch buyers), third-party ports, maybe 1 major release and a few more niche games, and LABO is what they need to carry the system to 20 million. With Sony basically replicating Nintendo's 2017 schedule of about 1 major new game per month, Nintendo's lack of response is going to leave it fighting for attention. Last year Zelda and SMO (helped by titles like Splatoon 2, ARMS, Mario and Rabbids) were huge talking points for Nintendo and Switch, and while it is true that there still those that want those games that do not have a Switch yet, Nintendo does not in 2018 have something comparable to enter into the conversation (one that is increasingly being dominated by MHW, GoW, RDR 2, even Sea of Thieves) for gamers. Right now I think we are heading for a repeat of 2012 (maybe in a less dramatic way though) where they have high expectations for a system that does not really have the software lineup to back it up in the midst of strong competition. Unless they have a good answer to that competition, then not only do I not see them not hitting 20M but I can easily see their momentum dramatically drop regardless of their own predictions (which would be catastrophic for a system like Switch which still needs to increase its installbase); I am also unsure how effective bundles and a moderate (lets say $50) price drop would be when the competition has lots of high profile new games, lots of bundles, and is likely going to get a price drop that will undercut the price drop that Switch might receive. |
That was quite lengthy...
I think the mix of 2nd tier titles, evergreen titles from 2017, and the possibility of price dropping and bundling will carry them through 2018. We also have no idea how Labo will perform but early signs are positive.
Switch drastically dropping off in performance, despite being the highest demand console of 2017, is just paranoia at this point.
