Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

[nemo37]

Both the PS2 and DS's circumstances were quite unusual.

PS2:
-Came out during the DVD player craze as an inexpensive DVD player
-Pretty much had 1 year (or more in some regions) on the market by itself as a next-gen system with heavy marketing (DreamCast was on death's door and GC and Xbox were still not released yet)
-Continued to sell well and receive software support even after its successor was released
-Little in the way of competition from smart streaming devices and smart devices

DS:
-Picked up kids and core gamers (which is what Switch is attempting to do) as well as older casual audiences
-Had a much cheaper price point
-Little in the way of competition from smart streaming devices and smart devices

I don't think that any dedicated video game hardware, barring very unusual circumstances, will reach those numbers. The only one that I can possibly see (and I cannot emphasis how slim I think the chances of this happening) is the PS4 if it manages to reverse the home console versus portable trends in Japan (maybe MonHun will do that, which will damage the Switch in the long-term, or maybe it won't) and somehow stays on the market and continues to sell well going into its 10 years (this would almost require for them to botch the PS5 as badly as the PS3 in its initial life and MS to basically provide little competition on the stationary side).

As for Switch, I see many uncertainties in the future. For one thing, I wonder how much of an impact MonHun World will have in Japan (a market that is critical to a handheld's success). In a very bad case I can see this game stifling Switch's momentum and potentially even damaging the prospects of handheld systems in the Japanese market (certainly in the short-term I fully expect that PS4 will outsell Switch in the next few weeks to few months due to the MonHun effect combined with Switch's stock problems and lack of a similarly powerful games series in the immediate future; they key will be if this game can reverse the handheld gaming trend and make PS4 the dominant system in Japan at the expense of the Switch's momentum, which would be very bold, but still, based on the hype and the strong push of this game by Sony and Capcom that I have been seeing, quite possible). Switch is also going to need more evergreen software releases from Nintendo; there is still a lot of such software left (2D Mario, Mario Maker, 2D Zelda, Animal Crossing, Smash, Pokemon, etc) but release timing it going to be key. If Nintendo releases these titles too far a part with little software that captures the interest of gamers then they can lose momentum. Another issue is the lack of the older demographics that purchased systems like the PS2 and DS (and even Wii and the original GameBoy); these people have likely moved onto smart devices and will be difficult to court back. Moreover, in the kids market there is far more competition now from smart devices (parents may opt to give their kids a cheap tablet or their older smart devices as opposed to spending $300 on a gaming system; at most the Switch at its current price will be picked up by family units as opposed to individual children in the family). The 3DS came out when mobile gaming was still young and it had to significantly reduce its price to get into the kids market; ultimately I believe the Switch will also need to do the same.

I think the Switch in its current state will get into the hands of core gamers and be picked up families (Nintendo will need to maintain a good and desirable software output to maintain momentum with these groups). At its current price I do not see parents picking up multiple consoles for each child in the household. Moreover, I do not think it has the appeal that Wii, DS, PS2, and even GameBoy had with older casual adults. Now Nintendo can remedy some of these things by introducing smaller revisions to replace the 3DS with at a lower price point or even by dropping the price of the current; this in conjunction with titles like Pokemon might get the system into the hands of multiple children in a single household. They can also release some casual games aimed at older adults (mental fitness, physical fitness, and games like the Wii Sports series), though with the penetration of smart devices getting this particular audience back is going to be more difficult. Ultimately, if Nintendo sells this Switch model generally at this price for the remainder of its (say 6-8 year) life then I think we will get numbers that close to but below 3DS (provided they do not dramatically lose momentum with core gamers and families, which I think we will get a clue of based on software releases/sales and system sales in 2018; moreover, the system needs to be able to overcome the current MonHun craze in Japan and there is a risk of this damaging the system's momentum in its second year). Now if Nintendo dramatically cuts the price of the Switch and/or makes a less expensive model, maintains a consistent software output, manages to regain its momentum after the MonHun launch in Japan then I can see it reach or even slightly exceed 3DS sales. If they do everything I mentioned in the last sentence and also release more casual software for the older demographic as well then I can see it coming in close to but below the Wii's life time sales. Of course, how long Nintendo keeps the device on the market will also be key. The situation in Japan right now with Monster Hunter and PS4 I would say is the biggest threat to Switch at the moment, and overcoming that will be key to maintaining the system's momentum as Japan sales are going to be key.