"Nintendo used all their cards the first year".
First of all, it's far from the case. They have A LOT of heavy hitters possible. Even games like Metroid, even if it doesn't sell 10 millions It has a really core fanbase and I think just games like that can scratch up some system.
But if we forget the biggest system sellers Nintendo has (which aren't out yet), a second Zelda/Mario 3D will still have a big impact on the system like a second Destiny had. It's not the game itself but most of the time the accumulation of games. Some people will crack under 2 Zelda some will buy the console only when Metroid or Pokémon is out. But even with a strong first year, launch years are generally pretty weak since the general market doesn't know the console, it doesn't have any deals/price cut and the library is starting.
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