RolStoppable said:
nemo37 said:
I think it was way too early to make that prediction when the OP made this thread and it is still too early to predict now. There are far too many uncertainties to make such bold predictions at this point. I want to see how quickly it can catch up to the GameCube and original Xbox's LTD and then the next milestone would be reaching 30 million (at which point I would say the system has a base that is starting to become viable). The next point beyond that would be 50 million (at which point I would say the installbase is fully viable). The bold predictions like reaching 100 million units can be made depending on if and how quickly the Switch reaches those milestones. Based on the first year alone it is difficult to make such a prediction. After all the 3DS (after price cut) and GBA also had very strong launches but neither went onto sell 100 million, and the DS's launch year was not particularly strong yet it is the second best console with regards to units sold. The key will be for Nintendo to maintain momentum and it remains to be seen whether or not they can do it in 2018. |
You are way too pessimistic on a regular basis. I remember your thread about Nintendo's fiscal year target of 10m and you thought what Nintendo had shown at that point would make it hard for them to do more than 5.5m.
Switch's installed base is already past the point where it's viable.
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LOL...you pretty much described my outlook on most things in life. I think it is always best to see and plan for the worst case. I just remember the threads on this site back in the Wii U's pre-launch and launch where a good number of people were saying it would at minimum sell around 40-50 million units minimum lifetime (many of course agreed that Wii like sales would not be achievable because of the central concept being weaker, but it seemed like it would still do moderately well), the end result of that was a system that sold far less and flopped. The Wii U burn has made me more pessimistic than usual when it comes to consoles in general but especially Nintendo.
