hudsoniscool said:
Soundwave said:
The thing is I don't think the "hardcore Star Wars fanatic" base is as large as people think it is.
Even if that group is say 10 million strong and they all agree to see the movie an extra time (keeping in mind a big chunk of this audience sees the movie 2x already) ... that nets you what? An extra $100 million? So you have $1.3 billion instead of $1.4 billion.
That's not really moving the needle.
You can't release a new Star Wars every year and expect people to go see every one of them 2-3x in the theater, that's not gonna happen. Eventually people, even fans realize "oh OK so this is going to be a yearly thing now" and it's not as special even if the movie does 100% of everything people want it do to.
But the bottom line is a new Star Wars movie every year simply makes more money. You may have to sacrifice $200-$300 million off each movie, but you're getting a $1+ billion influx of cash every year and a new movie every year means every year stores have to buy up a new wave of toys, t-shirts, books, games, etc. etc.
So you know this is a pretty easy choice for Disney to make.
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Ur right the fans that would have seen it 4-6 times are not that many but every moviegoer knows a Star Wars fan. When half the fans tell their normal movie going friends it sucked you can bet it not only hurt the box office but the brand as a whole.
I can't speak to the foreign market but I have a good grasp of the domestic box office. Had this movie been received as well as TFA it would have made 750-875 million instead of the 625ish it's destined to finish at. The 200-400 million missed out on isn't a big deal. The damage to the Star Wars brand is way more important.
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Well, 4-6 times is pretty extreme. But, how many see it 2-3 times with other buddies/family if it's good? I'd say you're looking at a big portion of the fandom there.
hudsoniscool said:
hudsoniscool said:
After seeing the Monday-Thursday drops I posted on a Star Wars forum that it would do 72millon. I feel like projections for Sunday could be a couple million low but idk.
I am happy to see it perform porely post initial weekend. I don't want Rian Johnson getting his own trilogy doing whatever he wants. He already ruined my hype for the saga movies going forward. I hope Disney sees how porely it performs and pulls it out from under him. I'm hoping for under 600 million domestic and under 1.25 million global. Sounds like great numbers but this movie should have been capable of hitting 700-850 million domestic and 1.7 billion WW.
It should get a good boost for the next 2 weeks though. It's fallen right to rogue one levels, and that got some really good boosts for these next 2 weeks(they came out one day apart on calander). I anticipate that it will do a little lower than rogue one during that time frame. I honestly think if that happens it will put a nail in rian Johnsons trilogy(thank the gods).
I think Disney will freak out internally with 600 domestic and 1.25 billion WW. Sounds really good but that's approaching a 50% drop from TFA. What happens after that 800milliom global for the next spinoff and 1 billion for EP9? Than what after that? It's obvious that disneys hope is to do a Star Wars movie every year, with that I'm sure they are asking this question after every release: did this movie strengthen the brand(or keep at same levels) or did this movie weekend the brand. If a movie weekens their brand than it's a failure.
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This is from dec 24th.
I was was really close with my domestic projections not so much with foreign. I had it at 615 million but was hoping for under 600. I still stand by these statements. Where does the bleeding stop. 2 billion for 7, 1.35 billion for 8, 1 billion for 9? 1.1 billion for rogue one, 800 million for Han Solo?
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Your estimates of how much it could have made are spot on. I know Disney was hoping for a 10% or so drop, but realistically expected $1.7B-$1.8B. Even a drop similar to the one ESB saw would have led to a result of $1.74B. And after the big drop off, insiders were still expecting $1.6B, since they actually thought it was only because of the holiday season.
People can play it off all they want, but Disney isn't exactly happy with the results. Not because they didn't make money, because they definitely did. No, it's because they expected to make so much more AND on top of that they are going to start to see the franchise decline more as they milk it for all its worth. There's already reports out that they think Solo is going to perform poorly. Apparently, they're still doing reshoots this close to release (a little over 4 months to go.) And if that does poorly, and Ep 9 is more of the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see it open lower than $200M and hit just $1B-$1.2B.
Disney has two options. Do a complete course correction, taking their time with future films and not giving those films to writers/directors with a nihilistic view of the world. Or put out as much shit as they can til they do completely run it into the ground. Considering it looks like they want release a new film every 6 months or so, I think they're going with the latter.
Last edited by thismeintiel - on 15 January 2018
