Global Hardware 23 December 2017

[DonFerrari]

xMetroid said:

DonFerrari said:

Some swear Nintendo will produce 25 to ship 20 (Nintendo target) and before believed the rumor that they would produce 30 to ship 25, do you also fall into that?

Well they said they want to sell more than 20 million units during next FY. They have been talking about consumers for their numbers lately, it's not an investor meeting which they have to talk about the numbers sold to retailers...

And if they want to sell 20+ millions (as of before the holidays,  it probably changed again with their amazing sales during December), yes I believe the rumour is probably true. If it's not, they still expected to sell 20+ millions like 4 months before the period and by that time the sales of the Switch have just been surprising everyone yet again. Their goal is probably up again, maybe now they want to sell 25 millions for the next FY, so even if the rumour is false, we are literally in the same area.

And if it is sold through consumers, then a 20-25 million goal would mean around 30 millions shipped, so again...

Wanting to sell and forecasting it are 2 different things, but let's go on it.

The rumor was to PRODUCE 30M to SHIP 25M, or PRODUCE 25M to SHIP 20M.

If the rumor was to sell through 20M while shipping 22M and perhaps having produced 22,5-23M it could make some sense (or sell 25, ship 27 produce 28)... but to ship 20 while producing 25 or 25 producing 20M is totally crazy, that is just to much inventory... because if you shipped 20M you would likely sold 18M, so by producing 25M you would have 7M unsold (or about 40% of the sold amount) that you would have to ship and sell on the slowest part of the year while keep the same production level or having extra cost to cut it down.