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Barkley on 13 January 2018
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Ryng_Tolu said:
Barkley said:

That's fine, I'm not here to argue shipment numbers anyway, like I said it could be higher than 13.5-14m, it wasn't a confident prediction.

My point to you was about consumer sales before you shifted it to shipments.

And do you really think the difference between shipments and sales is gonna be that high? With Switch having a very bad stock situation in Japan, and also Benji reporting stocks problems for Switch were bad even in January, you think there are gonna be 1.5-2 million difference between sold and shipped figure?

There is a reason if i talk about shipments: this is what Nintendo release. The 10 million sold annunced was a particolar special event, they won't do again this end of the quarter, they rarely annunce console sales worldwide, just shipments, and that's what i use, while you still want to use VGC even if you should know is super inaccurate as a source?

If they seriusly ship 15 million, you can say goodbye to your 12.4-12.8 million sold estimate lol.

 

You know what, fine, whatever you want, 13.5 million is not the minimum if we really want to assume the "anything is possible" thing. This doesn't mean your numbers right now are super pessimist, can you AT LEAST tell me reasons you think Switch should be under 13 million sold? When right now everything show is over that.

"do you really think the difference between shipments and sales is gonna be that high?"

Depends how long it takes from shipping the consoles to them being available to purchase on shelves, I don't believe there is a large amount of stock available to purchase, but there may be in transit.

"while you still want to use VGC even if you should know is super inaccurate as a source?"

I've already used figures other than VGC to show that current VGC numbers are not "super innacurate" at this time, as they lineup with official numbers from Nintendo for USA, Mediacreate numbers for Japan, and Official numbers from Nintendo for France.

"This doesn't mean your numbers right now are super pessimist, can you AT LEAST tell me reasons you think Switch should be under 13 million sold? When right now everything show is over that."

The reasons are... the 10m sold to consumers figure given by Nintendo, while there is some debate on when this figure actually applies to (december 3rd? December 9th?) It doesn't matter either way. I gave the Switch a 12.5m-13.5m range upon the announcement of this figure, estimating the Switch would sell between 2.5m and 3.5m for the remainder of december.

Now with the mediacreate, and official numbers for USA/France I have edited that to 12.4-12.8m, which for the most part is within my original range.

2.4-2.8m sold between December 4th and December 31st is not a low figure.

In fact to assume Switch sold more than 3m in December is to assume the Switch outsold PS4 GLOBALLY in december.

Last edited by Barkley - on 13 January 2018