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Intrinsic on 13 January 2018
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RolStoppable said:

The PS4 launched ~3.25 years before Switch. The 3DS launched ~1.75 years before the PS4, and the PS4 needed four years to pass it. Logically, since the PS4 peaked higher than the 3DS, Switch peaking higher than the PS4 would mean that Switch will still need at least four years, so anything before spring 2021 can be ruled out; however, the PS4 also had a headstart over Switch ~1.5 years longer than the 3DS had over the PS4, so it is a good idea to tack that on, bringing the earliest point to fall 2022. Taking the comparison further, it's a given that the PS4 will have a better tail than the 3DS, so Switch passing the PS4 gets pushed further back and therefore any date in 2022 can be ruled out while any first half date in 2023 would still qualify as farfetched.

If the comparison is made launch-aligned, then Switch is already ahead of the PS4. At the moment it's temporarily due to the different launch timings and holiday periods not aligning, but your suggested year 2 and year 3 figures for Switch would put Switch ahead for good.

Thanks for that.

I don't agree with launch aligning anything. As I feel it's a metric used (almost desperately) to balance the scales. But the real world doesn't work that way. A platform sells what a platform sells. Eg it doesn't matter if launch aligned the Wii is outpacing the PS4 if at the end of the day the PS4 sells 120M to the Wii's 100M. Same way it doesn't matter if the PS4 is outpacing the PS2 if the PERSON sells 150M to the PS4s 120M. 

now why I asked this question. is that I was trying to point out how irrelevant comparing sales of the PS4 to the NS is. I expect the NS to do well. but right now, the only comparison between the two that is relevant is how many units they both sell before their respective successors come into the market. there are too many different factors ranging from launch years to launch prices to form factors to make these comparisons fair in any way. 

by the time the NS gets to 100M (assuming it does) we could very well be in the 2nd or 3rd year of the PS5. i mean even if the NS sells 30M units net year adding to this year's 20M... it will still not reach the PS4 by the time the PAST hits the market. Which brings us back to the only relevant comparison being total lifetime sales.