RolStoppable said:
Oh, I remember that. Back then a bunch of people were saying it's all rosy for the 3DS because it's tracking ahead of the DS. I said that the 3DS had a major price cut in its first year and that the market reception for 3D has been far below expectations, nevermind that the DS peaked at insanely high levels that would already be tough to match for a console with healthy momentum. Then JayWood2010 (famous VGC member) responded by saying that I should be ignored because I am a kid who doesn't know what he's talking about. You are now committing the same error. You seemingly don't want to recognize that Switch and 3DS have notably different momentum and that's why you project them to perform similarly despite their very different performances in year 1. What does year 2 hold for Switch and 3DS? For the 3DS we already know because we have the benefit of hindsight. The 3DS had a rather quiet first half, then New Super Mario Bros. 2 in August and the big holiday title was Paper Mario: Sticker Star. That wasn't that great of a lineup in year 2. The main culprit for that was the Wii U, a new console that launched in late 2012 and had to be supported by Nintendo; not just in 2012, but also in the following year. Nintendo's development resources were split between two systems with the Wii U having the top teams working on it. And now we have to consider how year 2 will look for Switch. Is there a new console in the works at Nintendo? No? Well then, that's a significant advantage for Switch's software pipeline as Switch will remain the focus of Nintendo's top teams. It's the top teams that put out the biggest system sellers and that's what creates momentum for hardware sales. So Switch in year 2 has two big advantages over the 3DS: For one, it enters the year with much healthier momentum than the 3DS did, and two, its momentum will be further fueled by better first party support than the 3DS got. We can actually add a third advantage, because Switch's third party support is more robust than the 3DS's at the same stage. You say that we don't know what the future holds, but I say that an honest evaluation of a few basic factors goes a long way in determining whether year 2 of any given system will be up, flat or down. Switch is in such good shape that the arrow points up. |
They had every right to think that remember the ds was 130$, soon after launch, who's to say 170$ couldn't get it do ds numbers with price drop, even ps2 had a 100$ drop 1 year and some months after launch, playstation as well, you look at price drops to negatively.
