Intrinsic said:
I am not saying I agree with him, but I don't disagree with him either. Funny enough, for the same reasons you stated but I am just looking at them differently. I don't agree with anyone that judges the long term performance of any new hardware based on its first year of sales. In truth, I don't even care about the first year of sales, I am talking more about how long it will take that new hardware to saturate what I personally call a dedicated fanbase. Since we are talking about the switch, I want to believe that there are a certain number of people that would buy the switch rgardless of anything anyone says or thinks. Lets put that number at 10-15M. Less than what the WiiU sold to be fair and more than what it sold to account for people that are first time nintendo hardware buyers over this launch period. I think before we get a real handle of how the NS long term performance is going to be we simply need more time. We need to see what its baseline is this year. How its selling when there isn't any new IP or holiday season or launch madness to drive sales. It tracking better or worse than th 3ds doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Kinda like how the PS4 tracking better than the PS2 (which mid you was the best selling console of all time) doesn't mean anything when its most likely not going to sell more than 130M lifetime when its all said and done. |
Pretty extreme to believe record amounts of people are blindly buying the Switch. Maybe at launch there's the dedicated fanbase buying just cause it's Nintendo, but no way through out the whole year. If blind buyers were that numerous then Wii U should've sold this much year 1 and 3DS too before it's pricecut. I especially don't like that way of thinking as it undermines Nintendo's hard work n effort, that Switch isn't selling well because of it's great concept, games, and marketing, but eh to each their own!
Sure you can always just wait until the last year of a system to make sure you have the best idea of how it's going to turn out, but that's boring lol. The Switch has had non-holiday/non-launch weeks already, and significant new games releasing frequently should be the norm. Of course the final LTD number only becomes more clear the closer we get to it, but there's no harm making predictions at any point, especially the immediate future. Switch sold as much as 3DS but without a massive value increase, and Switch had supply constraints while 3DS did not, these reasons alone don't guarantee Switch ltd > 3DS ltd, but it does mean Switch is in a better position for long term success going into it's 2nd year compared to 3DS.
