| Lonely_Dolphin said: So you believe Switch sales in 2018 wont just be flat, but be down yoy? That's the only way 3DS could outpace it in the long run. Switch was supply constrained for a significant amount of time in 2017, that to me all but guarantees growth, but we'll see! |
I am not saying I agree with him, but I don't disagree with him either. Funny enough, for the same reasons you stated but I am just looking at them differently.
I don't agree with anyone that judges the long term performance of any new hardware based on its first year of sales. In truth, I don't even care about the first year of sales, I am talking more about how long it will take that new hardware to saturate what I personally call a dedicated fanbase.
Since we are talking about the switch, I want to believe that there are a certain number of people that would buy the switch rgardless of anything anyone says or thinks. Lets put that number at 10-15M. Less than what the WiiU sold to be fair and more than what it sold to account for people that are first time nintendo hardware buyers over this launch period.
I think before we get a real handle of how the NS long term performance is going to be we simply need more time. We need to see what its baseline is this year. How its selling when there isn't any new IP or holiday season or launch madness to drive sales. It tracking better or worse than th 3ds doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Kinda like how the PS4 tracking better than the PS2 (which mid you was the best selling console of all time) doesn't mean anything when its most likely not going to sell more than 130M lifetime when its all said and done.
