KLAMarine said:
KLAMarine said:
I'm expecting a slow start. |
bunchanumbers said:
I was predicting 40m but that might be generous. Now I'm thinking that it could be 25m at best. |
Dr.Vita said:
Let's say that I wouldn't be shocked if this happened. Nintendo proved that they are completely out of touch. |
Slarvax said:
I think it wont even outsell the Virtual Boy. |
niceguygameplayer said:
I agree with nearly everything you said. I predicted poorer sales than Wii U last night.
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ICStats said:
No, but it'll still sell like shit.
It may sell more than Wii U while cannibalizing the 3DS business. Overall Nintendo's revenues will be in ruins. |
poroporo said:
I think this thing is underpowered. The difference with the Wii U must be marginal at best (10-15%).
Will not sell well. |
thismeintiel said:
Yea, I don't think Nintendo fans remember how much hype was put into the Wii U pre-launch. Even suggesting it would flop would bring BIG laughs and the fallback argument of "this is the successor of the successful Wii, but also appeals to tablet gamers, and has 3rd party support." Hell, even those who thought the Wii U would perform poorly overestimated it. I think I predicted somwhere between 40 and 60 million for the thing. Of course, even those numbers were scoffed at. Turns out it was MUCH worse. And before the PS4/XBO launched, they were saying console gaming was dead because "if this is how the Wii successor performs, the PS4/XBO don't have a prayer. "
Now, they are using similar style of arguments. "It's protable." "It has a new Zelda." First of all, Zelda has never been a huge franchise. It sells well, but nowhere near Mario well. Nor does it push a lot of HW. And 2nd, portability didn't save the 3DS, which launched at $50 less than the Switch is. Nintendo had to do a $80 price cut to save it. Basically the real argument truly is "because its Nintendo."
Having said that, I don't expect it to sell less than the Wii U. It should at least double it. Of course, if that's all it does, it's still a VERY bad result for Nintendo, considering this is getting their full attention. At that point, they might as well start thinking about going either 3rd party or mobile.
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VAMatt said:
If they get it down to $250 with a bundled game by holiday 2017, then I think it will be fine. If they keep it at $300 with no game for very long, it will be their last console. |
DM235 said:
I agree with the OP. If there is no significant price drop in the first 6 months, this will be a major flop. It is priced too high as a home console, never mind a handheld (you can get a PS4 or XBO with a game for the same price). I expect the PS4 and XBO will also drop in price by $20 to $50 later this year.
Personally, I think the handheld market will continue to shrink as mobile devices get better and better. This year's iPhone 8 will probably be on par performance wise with the WiiU. Mobile games keep getting better and better, and their social media apps are much better.
The Wii U had good games, but that didn't save it.
Nintendo should release the Switch without the Joycon grip and with a pack-in game for $249.99. They should also have a home console only version (with no screen) for $199.99. |
Well...
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I've accepted responsibility for my terrible prognostication.
With that said, I still I think the price is too high. Basically, a parent has to spend $400 to set their child up with a Switch. That's a lot more than any parents are willing to spend. Get that number down to $250 and it becomes a lot more reasonable, for a lot more people. Assuming there's not going to be a 3DS successor, I still think the switch needs to get down in price significantly relatively soon.
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