Interesting that I am being accused of goalpost moving when it is clear who is moving goalposts. I have stayed firm, this movie is a big disappointment. The fan backlash led to much of its huge decline over TFA. I have continued to give further data supporting my claims.
Those for the movie, however, have gone from thinking it would clearly be over $1.5B. Actually saying that a 68% fall, which NO ONE predicted (even industry insiders, with BOM stating it was "steeper than expected"), was totally predictable. Then, compared it to the OG trilogy, completely taking ESB's drop out of context for the sake of their argument, and also acting like a WW 26% drop is the same as a 30%+ one (it could end up at 35%+.) Next, compared it to other movies outside the SW franchise, as well as a spinoff, just to make this one seem like its doing good and performing exactly to expectations. And, now, are actually grasping at straws, comparing it to the SE re-releases. Just, wow.
And I'll leave this very interesting article by the Hollywood Reporter (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/star-wars-last-jedi-dips-at-christmas-box-office-1070314.) In it the pundits prediction AFTER the huge drop is that it would go on to do $750M-$800M domestic and ~$1.6B WW. Why? Because they thought that even though the drop was bigger than expected, it was all because of the holidays, so afterwards it would almost fully recover. Well, looks like it could fall $100M-$150M short at the domestic box office, and $250M-$350M short WW, after the new predictions. Seems like something else was keeping it down. Hmm.
It also seems China isn't going to be much help. Midnight screenings brought in just $560K, which is down 78% from TFA's midnight screenings take of $2.5M. In its first weekend in China, TFA did $53M. For its first day, TLJ looks like it will only do ~$9M-10M, including those early screening from Fri. It's weekend is looking more like ~$20M, less than half that of TFA. And even lower than the $30.6M Rogue One made in its first weekend. It's also losing to a romantic-comedy that is in its 2nd week and has fewer screens. I guess the obvious pandering to the Chinese market didn't exactly work this time.
