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thismeintiel on 31 December 2017
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Teeqoz said:
thismeintiel said:

Who said anything about failure? That is a strawman that many who like the movie are clinging onto. There's a difference between a flop and a big disappointment.  Take GOTG Volume 2 for instance. If it had been down from the original by ~20%, down by ~$155M, would it have been a flop? No. But, it would have been a big disappointment, and would have made Disney/Marvel take note that there was something they needed to do to make sure that didn't  happen, again.  

The point is no one expected it to be this low. Definitely not Disney. TFA showed just how big SW is in this new market. Hell, even a spinoff could make over $1B. Sure, I'm positive Disney expected some decline in BO revenue, as TLJ wouldn't meet the levels of hype that TFA did. Though, it nearly did opening weekend, being down only $79M WW, down 15%.

After that weekend, I bet they were thinking $1.7B, maybe even $1.75-$1.8B, was in the bag. But, it continued to drop, faster than TFA, and now it's down $461.2M, or 31%. If the 31% down holds true, it won't hit $1.5B, ending ~$1.43B. Personally, I think the drop could hit 35%-38%, ending at $1.28B-$1.34B.  Definitely not a flop, but a big disappointment. 

You mention TLJ's excellent opening week, which in fact came close to TFA. What I don't get is why that's a reason to change your overall expectations (which, judging by your post at least, it seems you did), and I doubt Disney will be dissapointed by the movie not matching revised projections after a smashing opening week, if that's what you are suggesting they did...

I don't think they adjusted their expectations at all. I think the opening weekend just reinforced what they already thought would happen. It wasn't going to be as big as TFA, but it also wasn't going to fall this dismally low from it.

A 10% fall, like the one Avengers:AOU saw, was probably the most optimistic of their projections. A more realistic one would be to be 15%-18% down, something that they actually achieved, and on the better end of that range,  opening weekend, which was going to be the hardest to match given the amount of hype TFA had opening day. A more pessimistic prediction was probably 20%-25% down. They're hitting neither.