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thismeintiel on 31 December 2017
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mZuzek said:
thismeintiel said:

Who said anything about failure? That is a strawman that many who like the movie are clinging onto. There's a difference between a flop and a big disappointment.  Take GOTG Volume 2 for instance. If it had been down from the original by ~20%, down by ~$155M, would it have been a flop? No. But, it would have been a big disappointment, and would have made Disney/Marvel take note that there was something they needed to do to make sure that didn't  happen, again.  

The point is no one expected it to be this low. Definitely not Disney. TFA showed just how big SW is in this new market. Hell, even a spinoff could make over $1B. Sure, I'm positive Disney expected some decline in BO revenue, as TLJ wouldn't meet the levels of hype that TFA did. Though, it nearly did opening weekend, being down only $79M WW, down 15%.

After that weekend, I bet they were thinking $1.7B, maybe even $1.75-$1.8B, was in the bag. But, it continued to drop, faster than TFA, and now it's down $461.2M, or 31%. If the 31% down holds true, it won't hit $1.5B, ending ~$1.43B. Personally, I think the drop could hit 35%-38%, ending at $1.28B-$1.34B.  Definitely not a flop, but a big disappointment. 

Except, these aren't very comparable at all.

GotG Vol. 2 was always expected to do better than the first one, because it was a new franchise that people didn't know about when the first one came out, so Vol. 2 carried with it a lot of hype the previous one didn't have (in fact most predicted it to fail back then). Also, if it was down by ~$155m as you say, I think it wouldn't be a stretch to call it a flop as a worldwide box office of $600m for a movie that costed $200m to make (plus marketing costs and all that stuff) is actually not too great. In fact, at $860m it was seen as a mild disappointment by some, as the movie was generally expected to at least come close to the billion mark - something that ultimately didn't happen probably exactly because a good chunk of people didn't like it.

The Last Jedi was never expected to come close to The Force Awakens because TFA had insane levels of hype, and that was something the third Star Wars in 3 years was never going to match. I think around $1.5b was always the reasonable expectation for this one, and if it fails to get there then sure, it's (just as GotG Vol. 2,) a mild disappointment.

I understand where you're coming from - I too hate this movie and the general direction Disney has taken the franchise in, so my stupid selfish side also wants it to fail. But the reality is that it just didn't.

GOTG could have flopped, there's nothing guaranteed at the box office. Also, a movie has to do around twice its budget, plus marketing, to break even. GOTG Vol. 2's marketing budget probably wasn't that massive. For it to break even, it probably needed $500M or so. Like I said, ~$620M wouldn't have been considered a flop. Just a big disappointment. One that Disney/Marvel would want to correct.

Again, not a failure, a big disappointment. And even with the MASSIVE amount of hype that came from TFA, TLJ was able to open just 15% down from it. It had a ton of hype, as well. Unfortunately, it didn't live up to the hype. If it had been a good movie,  its drops wouldn't have been so drastic and it could have stayed ~15%-18% below TFA. I'm pretty sure that's what Disney was expecting, especially after that great 1st weekend. Hell, if it had been a masterpiece, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't drop a little under that 15%.

The fact remains, many fans weren't happy with it, so they aren't watching it a 2nd or 3rd or 4th time, like they did TFA.