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thismeintiel on 30 December 2017
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Teeqoz said:
thismeintiel said:

Sky high?  LOL.  You're not serious, are you?  To expect a sequel to do at least 85%-88% of the first one is not sky high.  The Avengers:AOU actually did 92% of The Avengers BO.  Trust me, Disney was not planning on this being down so low.  And had it been a great film, I bet it could have at least done 90%, maybe even 95%, of TFA's total.  Hell, if it had only been a good film it would have fallen into that 85%-88% range.  Sadly, most of this film was filler and quite a few of the fans rejected it, refusing the same repeat viewings they gave TFA.

Had this been any sequel I'd agree, but in this case, it was the sequel of the most succesful movie of the last decade. Age of Ultron got lucky thanks to explosive growth of western movies in China between the two releases giving it an advantage over The Avengers. Otherwise, it would've ended up at 1.2 billion, about 20% behind The Avengers.TLJ doesn't enjoy the same advantage over TFA, so its drop will be larger than AoU.

Sure, Disney might have expected an extra 100 million at the box office, but it's hardly a major problem.

Isn't Avatar still the most successful movie of the last decade? It did make $2.8B in 2009.

It doesn't really matter what country the movie makes its money, if it's making it. And TLJ is going to get a chance at that same Chinese market. Of course, reports are that pre-sales are even lower than Rogue One's. Though, it's not like SW did gangbusters there anyway. If it's down by 30% there that's only off by $37M.  Significant, but nothing earth shattering by itself when  we're talking hundreds of millions. 

No, it's not just $100M they're going to be off by. We'll have to see where things settle, especially after this weekend when schools are in and theaters are taking it off a few screens here or there. Even if it stays 30% off  for the rest of its run and they expected to be off by 15%, which would mean TLJ making $1.76B, they're still off $310.2M. I think they may end up being down lower than that. 

And really, no matter what they were expecting, what's going to be reported is the amount they're off from TFA, ~$620M.