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Barozi said:
There have been plenty of low budget games.
Not even counting indie games, that most of the time have a budget far below $10m.

So my question is, what is high and what is low?
If a game has a high budget ($50m+) then you can be sure it's a hit. Usually a sequel in a successful gaming series or the new IP from a well known developer (Bioware, Bungie etc.). Don't worry those will surely break even.

Everything else already has a medium sized budget. No point in reducing that any further.

Since when does the amount of money spent guarantee level of success?  Dead Space 2 had a budget of $60 million, and EA said that the 4 million copies sold was not profitable.  I imagine the budget for Dead Space 3 was high as well, with EA announcing they needed to sell 5 million copies to be profitable, resulting in the series cancellation when they didn't come anywhere near that.

Unnecessarily over-bloating a budget doesn't = sales.  Gears of War 1 & 2 were made on $10 million budgets and each sold over 6 million copies on a single platform.