Global Hardware Sales 18 November 2017

[DonFerrari]

Intrinsic said:

Green098 said:

I really don't think so... I think you're a bit off your rails if you think Switch not selling 850k this week means it's going to sell around 20 million lifetime when it's already sold half that in 9 months (just as fast as PS4 btw). I really really don't think "it's too early to be sure" for that one.

While i won't go as far as say what some are saying about the NS, I do believe its not going to be as successful as some think it will be. My current estimate is that it does around 50--60M lifetime. Which honestly isn't half bad and is to me actually a successful outting. Just not as high as some think it will be.

My reasoning for this is simple.

The NS cost $299. So while its selling as fast as the PS4 did, we shouldn't forget that the PS4 at the same time in its life the PS4 cost $399. In a perfect world, to be selling as fast as the PS4 while costing 25% less it should be at the very least selling 25% more consoles. This shows that if the NS cost $399 it wouldn't sell as well as its selling now. If the PS4 had cost $299 it would have sold more than it did then.

Then we also have two new games released for the switch that are among the five biggest selling IPs on any nintendo platform. And both games released in the launch year of the NS. While its possible that Mario Kart, Pokemon and Smash bro (the other three) will no doubt drive console sales, we shouldn't forget that there will be some crossover by then ( people that will buy those games that already bought the NS for Zelda or Mario) so its kinda ridiculous to think those games will drive sales exponentially if Mario and Zelda (two game of the year contenders by the way) hasn't.

Then we have the stock issue, for the most part I was in this camp as I felt nintendo wouldn't be able to meet demand of sales if the sales earlier in the year were any indication. But right now the Switch isn't having a stock issue so that line of reasoning is null and void now. I actually expected the NS to have sold or be selling a lot better than it is right now simply riding off Splatoon 2, Zelda and Mario.

So the question is this; what is going t be the NS major sales driver(s)?

I wouldn't say that it costing 25% less should sell 25% more... the price elasticity isn't linear...

Since we are comparing it to PS4 you have to compare the sales of Switch to when PS4 was 299 USD... and possibly remove the sales made at 399 from the highest Switch could achieve.