| vivster said: This logic doesn't help anyone and only gives fuel to the crazies. It's about probabilities here. Some probabilities are too low to be even considered. Saying "nothing is 100% sure" is not helping anyone and is not driving us forward. It's basically not making a point at all. Yes the possibility of Aliens stumbling upon earth is not absolute zero, but it's as close to zero as it can possibly get. And at some point you have to round numbers to make any sense. Saying that it's not 100% sure gives the impression that both opinions are equally valid, which they are not. One is backed by numbers and logic and the other is based on wishes and hot air. It's the same tactic radical media is using. They invite 2 climate scientists with opposing opinions as if they are equally valid, completely ignoring that one of the opinions is heavily supported by science and the other is not. It gives a false picture of duality and does a disservice to science as a whole. Saying that it could be true is not progressing the discussion. It takes it into circles and spreads misinformation. The chances aren't 50:50, they aren't 1:100, they aren't even 1:10000000000. The odds are so low that they become scientifically insignificant and not worth to pursue and waste resources on it. Crazies who put out their theories that have zero backing from science need to be shot down instantly with hard numbers. 99% is not doing that, it's just fueling their delusions. That's why smart people say "it never happened" and get on with their lives because they are bound to be mathematically correct.
As for numbers decreasing, this is false hope again. Most people don't realize how small or big those numbers actually are. 70 years or 90 lightyears might as well be zero in the scale of the universe. And that does not even include the odds of life actually developing and then also being in the exact same time frame. As years increase it actually becomes less and less likely to be visited by a species that picked up our signal, because by the time they reach us we're most likely not even here anymore. Humans will most likely not even exist anymore by the time our first electromagnetic transmissions reach the edge of our own galaxy. It would take 100000 years for the signal to leave the Galaxy. That's just one single galaxy out of trillions. And it's not even a big one. To reach the next Galaxy it's another 2.5 million lightyears. Modern humans have lived for about 20000 years. In that time frame you cannot even travel through a quarter of our own galaxy assuming you can even do it at light speed. So not only would those aliens have to be residents of our own galaxy, they would also have to be pretty close to our solar system. It's safe to say that there probably is not any developed life right now in our own solar system. The next star system is 4 lightyears away. Now think of how big the chances are that there is actually life and then multiply those chances that it has also been alive within the last 20000 years within this billion years old universe. People need to know those numbers and most people who do believe that aliens visited us are completely unaware of them and would instantly agree if someone explained to them the actual probabilities. The odds aren't increasing from 1% to 2%. They are progressing in about the same speed as a microbe on a marathon track. Nobody would watch that, because there is no way we will ever see that microbe arrive at its goal. |
I feel a bit uneasy arguing with you because I believe in science not in religion or in fantasies so I'm in a position where I must disagree with you while fundamentally agreeing... Just saying, to make this clear.
In my humble opinion you are as extreme in the scientific side of things are those so called "crazies" are in their position of defending fantasies.
The problem is that science is concerned with objective truth, not opinions or wishes.
Let me say this: Unicorns are (and I think we agree) 100% NON existing, not 99% not 99.9999999% but a clear cut 100% of Nope, they don't exist. Because there is no scientific logic or sense in imagining that an animal has magical powers because magic does not exist. Magic is simply what people in the past have invented to explain some phenomena they could not understand also magic helped fuel their fantasies. Only science looks at the universe and attempts to explain it objectively, through experiment and methodology.
But in order to say that we are 100% certain there is no intelligent life in the universe or that if there was that it is 100% certain they cannot visit us is short sighted because we simply don't know what they are, what they want and most importantly what they are capable of.
The universe is absolutely huge as you say but your mistake is to assume alien life has the same technology as we do. In that case it's pretty much unthinkable that they could have EVER visited us. You are very insistent on that but you have no idea how advanced they could be yet you are absolutely sure they cannot visit us because we cannot visit them at our level of technological evolution. Exactly as if an ant talking to another ant about humans and they would say to each other how humans could never understand mathematics or split the atom cause "we ants cannot so there is 0% chance humans can either". It's short sighted to assume that the best we can do is the most anyone else can.
Ask pretty much ANY astrophysicist how much they reckon they know about the universe and most if not all will tell you that while they know way more than the average human, that their knowledge must be close to almost nothing compared to all there is to know about the universe.
As for the crazies just cause they have no logic in what they say or just cause they lack scientific knowledge does not mean that the issue must be completely ruled out as non existent at all. Cause that is short-sighted too. As far as I'm concerned religion is crazy too but that does not mean that we know 100% that there is nothing after physical life and for example investigating what NDE's are, in no way validates the ideas of the crazies and their religion.
And there is a difference between the possibility of E.T. intelligence existing and unicorns: Scientists of SETI and other such organizations have millions of dollars in funding but what funding do you see for the search of unicorns? None. Ask yourself why. Maybe because the difference of a 99% chance of E.T. not existing and 100% for unicorns is more relevant than you think and is enough to justify genuine scientific curiosity and funding. If 99% and 100% were the same as you argue, then why aren't scientists investigating the existence of unicorns too since extra terrestrial intelligent life advanced enough to visit us is just as impossible as the existence of unicorns?
Last edited by CrazyGamer2017 - on 22 December 2017
