"The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

[GOWTLOZ]

SpokenTruth said:

DonFerrari said:

Will take time for Switch to be 100M, but next year we will have a better view of how likely is it to happen.

Sure 130 and 155M isn't the same. But 3 years ago even 100M was hardly accepted as a LT to PS4.

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.

Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

PS4 costs $400 for the slim system and $600 for Pro in India. There is a huge untapped sales potential in India, as lots of people are waiting for it to go down in price.

There is also the fact that Sony could make PS Plus non mandatory later in the PS4's lifecycle and that would boost sales a lot. Many of my PC gamer friends aren't buying a PS4 for that reason.

There is also the fact that PS4 Pro has made PS4 relevant to 4K TV owners, and as the adoption rate for 4K TV's increase so will PS4 Pro sales even to existing customers. 

There is also PSVR which has made gamers who are looking for new experiences interested in the PS4 Pro. Its not stated often on forums but its making lots of ripples in the market and many customers see PS4 as the best place for quality VR gaming at an affordable price.