My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Normchacho said:

killeryoshis said:
Switch can sell well. The thing is that this we be Nintendo's only platform for the next six years. Assuming Nintendo does not make any major mistakes the sales curve for the Switch should resemble the NES. For those who do not know the NES started very slow but keep building up until it peaked around 1990 to 1991. In Europe I think it peaked in 1992. Out of all the Nintendo consoles I see the NES being the closest relative. Handheld wise I see the DS as the closest.

So it has a lot of potential. I pegged at around 120 million to 130 million. It is going to a lot closer than what most think.

What makes you think the Switch will peak late?

It is true that Nintendo home consoles usually peak early, but the question is "why".  Why do their home consoles peak early?

The answer is that the release schedule of their games is front loaded.  They release a bunch of games for say, a home console, for a couple of years and then they focus their resources on handheld games to prepare for their next handheld launch.  Back and forth their developers go making home games for 2-3 years, then handheld games for a couple of years.

The Switch is different, because all of their developers are making games for one console.  They will have a steady stream of games for the console's lifetime, so it is not unreasonable to think that the Switch will not be front loaded like Nintendo's other home consoles.  (Of course Nintendo's handheld consoles are never front loaded, because they always have lots of 3rd party games too.  Don't be surprised if the Switch has plenty of 3rd party games.)